2020 Democratic Primaries

Discussion in 'Current Affairs & Debate' started by Mugatu, Oct 30, 2018.

  1. Mugatu

    Mugatu a policy wonk with sex appeal

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    I don't think the Bernie = Corbyn line is true. I've said this before but comparing Corbyn to Warren is far more accurate - their bases match up and both are fairly weak political operators.

    Bernie has an appeal to moderates that Corbyn has always lacked. He's #2 with Biden supporters, popular with independents, and relatively well-liked among Republicans compared to his main competitors. His base of support is diverse and widespread, especially in crucial Rust Belt states. He's the only candidate talking about how Trump lied to those voters about new jobs and trade.

    By the end, Corbyn was reliant on Labour's new base, which is middle-class, well-educated graduates. Sounds a lot like Warren's support, doesn't it?

    Beyond Corbyn's personal unpopularity, Sanders also has the advantage of no Brexit to push the different sides of his base against each other. He also has a more focused campaign platform than Labour in 2019. If he does win the nomination, there should be no serious third-party challenge to peel off moderate or single-issue voters, like there is here.

    The Democratic Party contains many absolutely craven hypocrites, like Hillary Clinton, but since 2016, they've all portrayed Trump as a unique threat to the moral fabric of America. Bernie may be a little "divisive" for these corporate Democrats, but unlike Hillary, a lot of his political rivals are terrified of public embarrassment. Against Trump, they will fall in line.

    The political establishment is also far more loathed in America than it is in Britain, where the left has very willingly spent the last three-and-a-half years defending it.
     
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  2. Mugatu

    Mugatu a policy wonk with sex appeal

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  3. ameraal

    ameraal i just wanna stay in the moonlight

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    what a useful comment. so comparable the two and their situation.

    sanders campaigned for hillary (extensively) even after it emerged the dnc was unfairly skewing the race in her favour from the get-go. and if you wanna go down the bitter followers road more sanders supporters voted for hillary in 2016 than hillary supporters voted for obama in 2008.

    feel free to like her as much as you like for whatever reason you do just don't base it in anything to do with her having any integrity.
     
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  4. VoR

    VoR #Justice4JLo

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    If you think Sanders is more comparable to Trump than Corbyn, we may have a problem... :D
     
  5. ameraal

    ameraal i just wanna stay in the moonlight

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    i think you need to reboot your computer and have a cup of tea is what i think.
     
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  6. VoR

    VoR #Justice4JLo

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    *sigh*

     
  7. Mugatu

    Mugatu a policy wonk with sex appeal

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    Who's your choice then? Warren will run into many of the same problems that you say Bernie will, surely.

    Her electoral record is weaker than Sanders. Warren underperformed Hillary's result in 2016, in a traditionally blue state, and she's among the least popular senators in the country. Her more ambitious policies will run into many of the same obstacles as Bernie's plans, with no activist network or theory of change to match his. Why order the diet version?

    And this isn't mentioning her series of lies about her background, which seems like a gift to Trump. History could repeat, alright, but not how you think.
     
  8. Jark

    Jark User

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    There is no situation in which Bernie is not the best choice candidates for the dems. This is not a Corbyn situation at all.

    My only genuine concern about him is his age/health and ability to get through 4 years of presidency (8 hardly even seems a possibility). Biden seems more likely to go the distance in that respect despite being only a year younger (and having occasional bleeding eyes). But none of us are experts on his health, doctors have said he's in a fit state etc and that is ultimately what VP picks safeguard against.
     
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  9. Dark Carnival

    Dark Carnival Missss Vaaaaaanjie

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    I really don’t like her that much actually, and what I’m trying to point out here is just how much the left is willing to divide itself over details whether it be Hillary or Sanders supporters. And I’m sure it’s going to happen all over again when Biden wins the primaries.
     
  10. VoR

    VoR #Justice4JLo

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    Honestly, as deeply uninspiring of a candidate as he is, at this point I’d probably breathe easiest with a safe, middle America-courting Biden run.

    I do understand that Sanders and Corbyn aren’t direct analogues, but on the broad strokes I do think the issues are the same. When it gets to crunch time, I think Sanders and his scary socialism would likely put off more potential swing voters, while if the poll you posted above bears out and #BernBros would rather let Trump back in than hold their noses and vote for another candidate, well, they deserve everything they fucking get, frankly.
     
  11. Mugatu

    Mugatu a policy wonk with sex appeal

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    I agree that Biden would also probably win, but Bernie's polling against Trump is nearly identical. Sanders leads Florida against Trump by 6 points (an outlier, but this poll also finds Bernie with a stronger lead there than Biden), Michigan by 5 points, and Wisconsin by 4 points. Flipping these states will win the presidency. There are others up for grabs too.

    One new national poll shows Bernie with a 9-point lead over Trump, the largest of the field. Again, one poll, but people already know he's a socialist and that's a big lead. His support is also traditionally underrated. Trump isn't infallible at all, but the Democrats have to play to his weaknesses. He hasn't delivered what he said he would in these swing states.

    Of course, early polls are wrong sometimes, but I actually think Bernie has a strong argument on electability, as well as his policies. It's difficult for me to see Biden as more than a one-term placeholder, given his reluctance to push for real change.

    The poll I posted earlier found only 4% of Sanders supporters would vote for Trump instead of one of Biden, Buttigieg or Warren. Some might stay home or vote Green, but he has the smallest number of the main contenders' supporters who would flip to Trump. The narrative doesn't line up with the data.
     
    Last edited: Jan 22, 2020
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  12. SDF

    SDF The Wait is Over

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    I don’t see Biden winning against Trump. He is so uninspiring. Bernie is by far the best chance they have at bringing out new voters, or appealing to the voters who voted for Trump as anti establishment rather than what he stood for.
     
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  13. VoR

    VoR #Justice4JLo

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    It feels like a long, long walk to go from voting Trump to voting Sanders TBH.

    Like, I don’t think the anarchist vote doesn’t exist, but I’m really not sure how significant it is compared to the ”just keep the economy healthy and don’t tax me too much” demographic.
     
  14. SDF

    SDF The Wait is Over

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    Well, it obviously isn’t that long of a walk, if he is out polling him in key swing states.
     
  15. KindaCool

    KindaCool KayCee

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    A Trump vs Sanders finale would be the shit show from hell. Can you imagine the name calling?
     
  16. Jark

    Jark User

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    I feel like if you put them head to head on a debate stage Trump could probably exploit Biden's vulnerabilities with relative ease, choose his moment carefully and tear him a new one... it would only take one blunder. But you know Bernie wouldn't give him that chance.
     
  17. KindaCool

    KindaCool KayCee

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    And he's Jewish, so you know a good chunk Trump's supporters will be foaming at the mouth.
     
  18. Mugatu

    Mugatu a policy wonk with sex appeal

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    CW: another bored-at-my-desk, rambling lecture

    13% of Trump voters voted for Obama in 2012, and they're two very different politicians.

    I don't see it as a question of anarchy, more who's willing to give you some dignity, particularly with the working-class vote.

    Trump has been a terrible president, dedicated to the wealthy instead of normal people, but on the campaign trail in 2016, his message was very different to establishment Republicans.

    He said he would bring back good jobs to former industrial areas, expand healthcare coverage, and protect Medicaid, Medicare and Social Security. He's done none of those things, but it was a winning populist message. I think Sanders can take that territory.

    Yesterday, Tucker Carlson openly said that Sanders could win many thousands of Trump supporters, because he understands the need to protect the basics of working-class people's lives, instead of forcing them to play the meritocratic lottery. That's how left-wing policy can win Trump voters.

    This article I read earlier about Democrats' obsession with making everyone go to college and try to join the middle-class, just in exchange for a stable life, explains what I think loses working-class votes to the right. For once, even the criticism of Bernie in the article is mostly correct (although I don't think he's the worst in other respects). The left needs to love the poorly educated too.
     
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  19. COB

    COB Pissbaby

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    Breaking news from Lying CNN -
    [​IMG]
    Why oh why won't the Biden Bros get behind the most electable candidate? etc etc
     
  20. Mats

    Mats User

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    sad, sad Hillary

    (pardon the vitriol)
     
  21. COB

    COB Pissbaby

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    Actually never mind, Biden is good now:
     
  22. ameraal

    ameraal i just wanna stay in the moonlight

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    this is my favourite tweet today:

     
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  23. SDF

    SDF The Wait is Over

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    What a hoot she’s turned out to be.
     
  24. Jark

    Jark User

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    Bernie's polling is in sharp ascent the last week or so

    Jan 22, CNN
    Sanders 27, Biden 24, Warren 14, Buttigieg 11, Bloomberg 5

    Jan 22, Morning Consult
    Biden 29, Sanders 24, Warren 15, Bloomberg 10, Buttigieg 8

    Jan 24, Emerson
    Biden 30, Sanders 27, Warren 13, Yang 8, Bloomberg 7, Buttigieg 6

    Jan 26, FOX
    Biden 26, Sanders 23, Warren 14, Bloomberg 10, Buttigieg 7

    Iowa, Jan 25, NYT
    Sanders 25, Buttigieg 18, Biden 17, Warren 15, Klobuchar 8

    Iowa, Jan 26, CBS
    Biden 26, Sanders 25, Buttigieg 22, Warren 15, Klobuchar 7

    Iowa, Jan 27, Emerson
    Sanders 30, Biden 21, Klobuchar 13, Warren 11, Buttigieg 10

    New Hampshire, Jan 26, NBC
    Sanders 22, Buttigieg 17, Biden 15, Warren 13, Klobuchar 10

    New Hampshire, Jan 26, CNN
    Sanders 25, Biden 16, Buttigieg 15, Warren 12, Klobuchar 6
     
  25. COB

    COB Pissbaby

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    OMG imagine if Amy Klobuchar does better than Liz Warren :D
     
  26. ameraal

    ameraal i just wanna stay in the moonlight

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    i'm still fuming at warren for shooting herself in the foot. biden is still doing far too well but i have faith sanders will take iowa and new hampshire.
     
  27. COB

    COB Pissbaby

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    Also, this absolutely rules:

    Give it to 'em king :disco:
     
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  28. SDF

    SDF The Wait is Over

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    Preach :disco:

    I feel like I keep asking this but when is the first primary? This campaign feels like it has been going on forever.
     
  29. Mugatu

    Mugatu a policy wonk with sex appeal

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    The Iowa caucus is on Monday.

    I'll do a special primary update, but until then, Michael Bloomberg has something important to share with the gay community.

     
  30. COB

    COB Pissbaby

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    John Delaney DEAD
     
  31. COB

    COB Pissbaby

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    Why does this exist?!
     
  32. COB

    COB Pissbaby

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    Iowa Caucus TODAY oh god I'm so stressed out about this
     
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  33. SDF

    SDF The Wait is Over

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    I still find the caucus’ a bit odd. Didn’t they last time decide some with a coin toss? :D
     
  34. SDF

    SDF The Wait is Over

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    I see Joe Biden’s been kissing his granddaughter on the lips. Must be for good luck :side-eye:
     
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  35. ameraal

    ameraal i just wanna stay in the moonlight

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    sanders is so wiping the floor with the lot of them.
     
  36. Lucille

    Lucille User

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    I’m so pumped for Sanders losing to Trump by the least embarrassing margin!
     
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  37. ameraal

    ameraal i just wanna stay in the moonlight

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    who do you see beating trump?
     
  38. Lucille

    Lucille User

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    I don't think anyone can.
     
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  39. ameraal

    ameraal i just wanna stay in the moonlight

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    i see. i'm pretty confident about sanders' chances. he is totally pulling a trump in terms of trajectory - media making fun of him, no one in the party taking him seriously apart from a very enthusiastic base and striking a chord with disenfranchised working class people - but with actual political convictions and passion.

    iowa will be the first proper test to see if his strategy to bring low propensity voters out works.

    the biggest problem is there is so much fucking time until the actual elections. who knows what will happen until then with trump becoming more and more unhinged and the "democratic party" gearing up against sanders.

    i think bloomberg is a big wild card as well. it's unbelievable (and appalling) what dumping millions in ads can do.
     
  40. Mugatu

    Mugatu a policy wonk with sex appeal

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    MOOPY CAUCUS UPDATE #6 - DESTINATION IOWA

    [​IMG]

    920 days since the first Democratic candidate announced his run for President (RIP John Delaney, who wasted $25 million of his own money to drop out three days before the first votes took place), we’ve finally made it to the Iowa caucuses.

    The traditional first state to choose their nominee is known all around the world as the home of corn and Slipknot. This evening, Iowans will be assembling to take part in the confusing and convoluted Democratic caucus, across 1,700 precincts and satellite caucuses.

    Put simply, a load of people gather in a room and move around into different spaces of the room that represent different candidates. The first round of caucusing is a free vote, then the candidates who have less than 15% of support are knocked out. Their voters are then free to move across the room, encouraged by other candidates’ precinct captains and supporters. (better explanation here)

    The results should start to arrive at 1.30am UK time, but before that, let’s uncuck the polls and take a look at the hot gossip that simply everyone is talking about on caucus day.

    Final pre-caucus polling

    Emerson – Sanders 28%, Biden 21%, Buttigieg 15%, Warren 14%, Klobuchar 11%, Yang 5%, Steyer 4%, Gabbard 1%.

    Data for Progress – Sanders 28%, Warren 21%, Biden 15%, Buttigieg 15%, Klobuchar 8%, Yang 5%, Gabbard 2%, Steyer 2%.

    Des Moines Register – CANCELLED for the first time in 76 years. A Buttigieg supporter complained that Pete’s name was either omitted or mispronounced, invalidating the entire poll. Bernie had a narrow lead in the previous DMR poll and I expect he’ll be in front when the new poll leaks.

    Because of the way the Iowa caucus works, anyone with less than 15% will be knocked out in the first round of voting. Warren is under pressure to get across that threshold, going by most recent polls from Iowa. If she doesn’t make it, will her supporters flip to Bernie, Joe, or Pete?

    Other noteworthy news

    The DNC have abruptly changed their debate qualification rules, coincidentally after a $300k donation from big gay ice cream aficionado Mike Bloomberg. He’ll be on the debate stage in Nevada, despite not even being on the ballot, and is very unfairly being given a box to stand on.

    Bloomberg has also already spent more than $100 million on internet and TV advertising. That’s more than the Trump campaign spent in all of the 2016 election, with Super Tuesday still one month away. Remember, he’s not on the ballot for any of the opening four states (Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina). I have a bad feeling that he’ll run third-party against Sanders.

    Bloomberg shook a man by the hand – and a dog by the mouth.

    The latest Democratic old guard member to consider a STOP BERNIE run is failed 2004 nominee John Kerry, who endorsed Biden in December. “Maybe I’m fucking deluding myself here,” he said in a rare show of prescience.

    The DNC freak-out continues as rumours suggest they want to bring back the massively unfair superdelegate system in the first round of voting. At the moment, the superdelegates – mostly party officials and other names from Jeffrey Epstein’s black book – come into play if nobody secures a majority of delegates from the primaries. This would basically hand Biden the nomination.

    Impeachment flopped. I don’t expect this to have any bearing in the primaries, because no sane person knows who or what a “Lev Parnas” is.

    The Democratic Majority for Israel group (that’s the actual name, I’m not doing tropes) launched an attack ad in Iowa focused on Bernie’s heart surgery and terrifying radical socialism. In response, his campaign promptly raised $1.3 million in one day.

    Liz Warren wants criminal penalties for people who post “disinformation” online. Thank God nobody in America knows who Peter Kay is.

    Hillary got booed on-stage at a Bernie rally by Rashida Tlaib. This prompted several amusing online meltdowns from ex-Clinton staff and the return of one of my favourite lines from 2016, that Hillary is actually a POC and criticising her is racism.

    Failed 2016 candidate Martin O’Malley is in the Guardian today pushing more divisive attacks on the Democratic front-runner. When will these purity tests end? Do the O’Malley bros want to beat Trump?

    That’s about it for now. I’ll be back tomorrow with the results.
     
    Last edited: Feb 3, 2020
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