Hillary about to announce an attempt at the Presidency

Discussion in 'Current Affairs & Debate' started by Ag, Jan 20, 2007.

  1. Diddy

    Diddy Rice Queen

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    how QUEER, the BBC site pretty much agrees with those numbers +/-2 ish, they must have updated it since lunchtime!
     
  2. jonhawk

    jonhawk Bluffin' with my muffin

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    The BBC probably isn't the best place for up-to-date figures, they just use the Associated Press figures and only update them when they realise AP have changed theirs...

    I get mine from this blog: http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/

    It is a specific Democratic Convention blog and they compare most of the main US media outlet figures too. They keep a very close eye on superdelegates especially, who endorses and when... so it really is quite accurate.

    If we're talking superdelegates:

    [​IMG]

    You can see Hillary's lead ever reducing. Plateauing now for about a month.
     
    Last edited: Apr 23, 2008
  3. jonhawk

    jonhawk Bluffin' with my muffin

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    :D The Daily Show from last night was LOLLERIFIC.

    <embed FlashVars='videoId=166850' src='http://www.indecision2008.com/sitewide/video_player/view/default/swf.jhtml' quality='high' bgcolor='#cccccc' width='332' height='316' name='comedy_central_player' align='middle' allowScriptAccess='always' allownetworking='external' type='application/x-shockwave-flash' pluginspage='http://www.macromedia.com/go/getflashplayer'></embed>

    Love the logic behind who thinks they are ahead :D
     
  4. Jark

    Jark I... know... how bad you want this

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    Who is that unamusing KNOBHEAD?
     
  5. Suomi

    Suomi User

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    Hilary Clinton
     
  6. jonhawk

    jonhawk Bluffin' with my muffin

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    The top 10 "Surprising Facts About Barack Obama"

    10. My first act as President will be to stop the fighting between Lauren and Heidi on “The Hills.”

    9. In the Illinois primary, I accidentally voted for Kucinich.

    8. When I tell my kids to clean their room, I finish with, “I’m Barack Obama and I approved this message.”

    7. Throughout high school, I was consistently voted “Barackiest.”

    6. Earlier today I bowled a 39.

    5. I have cancelled all my appearances the day the “Sex and the City” movie opens.

    4. It’s the birthplace of Fred Astaire. (Sorry, that’s a surprising fact about Omaha)

    3. We are tirelessly working to get the endorsement of Kentucky Derby favorite Colonel John.

    2. This has nothing to do with the Top Ten, but what the heck is up with Paula Abdul?

    1. I have not slept since October.
     
  7. loomer

    loomer User

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    Lmfao @ that girl who challenged Clinton on a clip from Channel 4 News

    "I do feel pandered to. Call me crazy, but I listen to economists cause they might actually have studied that and know what they're talking about".
     
    Last edited: May 5, 2008
  8. Madison

    Madison Everything goes up by six

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    Obama projected to win North Carolina.

    25% of precincts in Indiana reporting, 57% Clinton, 43% Obama
     
    Last edited: May 7, 2008
  9. Madison

    Madison Everything goes up by six

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    what happened to the poll?
     
  10. Madison

    Madison Everything goes up by six

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    Obama won North Carolina.

    Clinton won Indiana, but only by 51-49. I fear that's not nearly strong enough to keep her momentum going.
     
  11. jonhawk

    jonhawk Bluffin' with my muffin

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    I don't think Clinton can recover from this. This clip from MSNBC's Washington editor pretty much sums it up. He says she's cancelled all TV and public appearances for some "soul searching" and that loaning more money to her campaign where now it's very unlikely she's going to be nominated would be risky. I wonder if she's about to announce her withdrawl from the race. :o

    <object width="425" height="355"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/lklfIPBK4Zg&hl=en"></param><param name="wmode" value="transparent"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/lklfIPBK4Zg&hl=en" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" wmode="transparent" width="425" height="355"></embed></object>
     
  12. SDF

    SDF We're all Angles in Chainz

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    POOR Hills, she just can't sway the black vote and that ultimately is her problem. :( While his win in NC was undoubtedly convincing, she has made gains in Indiana. IF she goes on, I will continue to support her, but I think the dream of having a women president is all but over.
     
  13. jonhawk

    jonhawk Bluffin' with my muffin

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    Everwhere is reporting that the end is nigh for Hillary - it's going to happen soon I think. Some think it will happen before the next primary contests which are in a week or so. Apparently about 30-40 superdelegates are about to endorse Obama sometime soon, soon enough to end the race but in time so it doesn't damage Hillary or Obama. This would take Obama past Hillary on the superdelegate count (by about 20 or 30).
     
  14. lolly

    lolly Rowena? From Kuwait?

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    What happened to the poll? :o
     
  15. jonhawk

    jonhawk Bluffin' with my muffin

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    :o I don't know!
     
  16. lolly

    lolly Rowena? From Kuwait?

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    Looks like it got fucked up when some posts were merged and edited
     
  17. loomer

    loomer User

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    Where did the lovely West 4th's thread go?

    As an ACTUAL American from New York, I think he may have more of an idea what he's talking about than us. Way to encourage old posters back.

    OK, so he hasn't got the hang of the one big thread for everything yet.. so what.
     
    Last edited: May 7, 2008
  18. funky

    funky OH SHE’LL HAVE TO CALL YOU BACK

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    just because someone is from American doesn't mean they know more about American politics :D

    I mean have you been to OHIO
     
  19. Ag

    Ag BRING BACK TAGS

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    I fucked this topic up sorry.

    Merging is less essential with the similar threads function
     
  20. Madison

    Madison Everything goes up by six

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    Shame there isn't a way we can mess up the actual polls in America. Merge Florida with Illinois or something.
     
  21. loomer

    loomer User

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    Well natch, Funky.. but everyone knows that (the stereotype) of rednecksville and the bible belt is that they're less progressive than NY/LA
     
  22. Madison

    Madison Everything goes up by six

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    Oooh, there's increased chatter of Clinton becoming the dem Veep candidate...

    I'd vote for that!

    I also placed £15 on it happening a week ago at odds of 7.00. I can cash out now that the odds are down to 5.90 and make about £15 porift, or I can wait and see. What should I do?
     
    Last edited: May 8, 2008
  23. Ag

    Ag BRING BACK TAGS

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    dem Veep?
     
  24. Madison

    Madison Everything goes up by six

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    Sorry, democratic vice-presidential candidate
     
  25. jonhawk

    jonhawk Bluffin' with my muffin

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    Obama has now passed Hillary in terms of superdelegates:

    Obama: 274
    Clinton: 270

    [​IMG]

    So then the totals:

    Pledged:
    Obama: 1590
    Clinton: 1426

    Total:
    Obama: 1864
    Clinton: 1697

    Needed to win the nomination:
    Obama: 160
    Clinton: 327
     
    Last edited: May 11, 2008
  26. loomer

    loomer User

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    I thought that's what you meant. Cool either way. That would be amazing, in fact.

    Like I said, either would be revolutionary (well if they got in at least). Obama is younger and more exciting. She is from the old skool and was perceived to be running the show by many Americans at the time.

    But she wants to provide universal health coverage and give the US its own version of the NHS, which I thought was neeeded. That's what I remember from years ago, other than that she is not very leftist or progressive from what I can surmise of her back story.

    And Hils would totally want to run the show! She'd be great to have on your team, but I think she'd be more like Gordon Brown in some ways. She is a fiercely intelligent woman and her background in law(?) would always serve her well for the debates.
     
    Last edited: May 11, 2008
  27. Madison

    Madison Everything goes up by six

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    Is it wrong to judge a candidate on their bowling ability?

    <object width="425" height="355"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/-afpPb2NT2I&hl=en"></param><param name="wmode" value="transparent"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/-afpPb2NT2I&hl=en" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" wmode="transparent" width="425" height="355"></embed></object>

    He only bowled a '37'. I bet even Rachey could beat that.
     
  28. SDF

    SDF We're all Angles in Chainz

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    EXCELLENT result for Hillary last night, even if it brings her no closer to Obama in terms of delegates, the record turnout speaks volumes. I definitely think that this gives her campaign a much needed boost of energy and momentum. If both Michigan and Florida are indeed counted in the popular vote (which would be an ideal situation for the Senator) then she has just over-taken Obama. And even if we discount the state of Michigan (and just include Florida, which in all honesty I think is FAIR), then Senator Clinton will most likely win the popular vote by the end of the nomination process.
     
  29. jonhawk

    jonhawk Bluffin' with my muffin

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    Do you really think it's given ANY momentum?! The reality is that Michigan and Florida will not be counted in the way that was decided at the polls. Howard Dean (the DNC chair) has said however that he want's to seat the delegates somehow... though it's probably going to be a pretty even distribution. The results of the Committee looking into it reports at the end of May I think... Though I'm not sure that it will make much difference now as Obama has a pretty significant lead, hardly affected by yesterday's results for instance.

    Actually if yesterday's results mean anything, it is that they show Clinton's demographic is a KEY one, probably fuelling the hunger for a dream ticket.
     
  30. Madison

    Madison Everything goes up by six

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    I'm so angry with the Florida democratic party - it's not a hard strech of the imagination to believe Clinton would have nailed the nomination if they had held their primary say on Super Tuesday.

    Florida messes it up yet again.
     
  31. SDF

    SDF We're all Angles in Chainz

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    Yes I do think it gives Clinton some weight with the Superdelegates. Despite the fact that he was outspending her 2:1, she THRASHED him with a 40 point lead in West Virginia. It is her 2nd most convincing win yet, and the record turnout, only helps Clinton defend her right to stay in the contest. If Clinton is able to maintain this momentum, she could end up with more popular votes than Obama. It is then up to the superdelegates to decide if winning the popular vote makes her more electable in November.
     
  32. jonhawk

    jonhawk Bluffin' with my muffin

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    The reason why she thrashed Obama was because of the demographics of the state - pretty much a perfect fit with the demographic Hillary has captured in other contests. I don't think it has much at all to do with spending in the case of West Virgina. There is no momentum to maintain, this was always a state she was going to win by a clear margin.

    The superdelgates are ALREADY deciding that Obama is probably the most likely candidate. Compounded by that, BREAKING NEWS is that John Edwards will endorse Obama!
     
  33. Madison

    Madison Everything goes up by six

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    If I was making the argument to the superdelegates, it would go something like this:

    It's clear the democratic voters have not come to a unanimous decision on who would be the best candidate.

    Whichever candidate is selected, roughly half the democrats will not be happy.

    It is the higher duty of the superdelegates to select the candidate that will take the presidency. The superdelegates aren't there to vote for the candidate with the most delegates - that would render their existence as pointless.

    Argue that the election is won and lost in the swing states - pick the 10 likely swingers (*cough* including FLORIDA) and argue that Hillary has a better chance of winning.

    www.electoral-vote.com's maps of Clinton vs. McCain constantly predicts her victory in November, but I've never seen Obama beat McCain.

    http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Obama/Maps/May14.html
    http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Clinton/Maps/May14.html

    The clinton camp should produce professional versions of these and distribute them.
     
  34. Madison

    Madison Everything goes up by six

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    Shit - how many delegates are pledged to him?
     
  35. jonhawk

    jonhawk Bluffin' with my muffin

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    Well Edwards isn't a superdelegate himself so that doesn't push up Obama's figures... Edwards pledged delegates, i.e. the ones he's won in previous races don't transfer to another candidate I don't think, they just stay in his "column" (he only has 32 anyway). His superdelegate endorsements have already been reassigned prior to this announcement, though some may have been holding back to see what Edwards did, or some may have used their own initative.

    The bigger issue is Edwards' endorsement of Obama will send a signal to those some 239 uncommitted superdelegates who have yet to endorse... if the tide is turning in Obama's favour and people want the race to be over to build up a national campaign against McCain for example, then his endorsement may trigger some superdelgates to endorse Obama as afterall Edwards still is an influential figure amongst democrats.
     
  36. funky

    funky OH SHE’LL HAVE TO CALL YOU BACK

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    I'VE BEEN SAYING THIS ALL ALONG

    American once again is being THICK
     
  37. Madison

    Madison Everything goes up by six

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    I vote funky for US president.

    You can be veep jonhawk. Rachey just misses out.
     
  38. jonhawk

    jonhawk Bluffin' with my muffin

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    This is a good argument, the swing states are of crucial importance and yes Hillary does best there. That is the most important and convincing strand of argument.

    In regards superdelegates, many have different approaches to endorsing, some have said they will endorse the candidate who wins their local primary (as the superdelegates are tied to states also - complicated MUCH?). Others have said they will endorse based on what you say is the "correct" way, i.e. on who they think is the best candidate as they are all elected office holders - elected to speak and vote on behalf of the Democratic party at-large. Some have said they will endorse the person in the lead to end the process quicker... so there is no real right or wrong way so to speak in the logic of endorsing.

    Obama has won polls against McCain, don't know where you have that information from... there was a poll released today saying both Hillary and Obama are winning against McCain, Obama by 7 points and Hillary by 5.
     
  39. jonhawk

    jonhawk Bluffin' with my muffin

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    History of polling between Obama and McCain:

    [​IMG]

    Between Hillary and McCain:

    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited: May 14, 2008
  40. Loufoque

    Loufoque BATTLE FOR YOUR LIFE

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    Interesting stuff

    However I don't really care about the facts and figures, I am not a co-host on The View

    All I know is I want Hillary to win ASAP
     

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