Discussion in 'Current Affairs & Debate' started by Ag, Jan 20, 2007.
Ooooh it's happening:
West Virginia is a swing state though. Just as Clinton's campaign manager stated last night, had Al Gore won West Virginia, we would be looking at a completely different administration in power right now.
I noticed the Edwards endorsement, I wonder what Obama offered him in exchange for this? I'm quite shocked he has taken THIS long to "think" about it. BOO to Edwards, I blame his wife.
What's happening? - that link never works for me.
Edwards' speech endorsing Obama... REALLY good speech so far.
Those graphs look fucking complex
The uncommited bit looks the MOST important
An interesting issue development has emerged today... California's Supreme Court has just overturned a law banning same-sex marriage, therefore becoming the second state (after Massachusetts) to allow it. The case has been ongoing for a couple of months and was widely thought that California's relatively conservative justices on the bench would back the ban. However, they ruled that it is a CIVIL right for Californians to marry who they love, all Californians gay or straight.
Gay rights has not been a very high priority issue on the campaign trail at all during these elections so far, so I think this will eek its way into political debate.
What makes this particularly interesting is that the case in California will most likely be contested in the US Supreme Court, and never before has the issue of same-sex marriage been contested there. This makes it of relevance to the US Presidential race because there will be increased discussion on what kind of judges the candidates will appoint to the Supreme Court. This will probably work in favour of John McCain who will have the opportunity to say that he'll support conservative judges, therefore stirring the Republican evangelical base, who as yet have been very UNSTIRRED by the comparitavely liberal Republicanism McCain stands for.
She should give up and give up now. All her clinging on is doing is handing the Presidency to McCain.
The results of the second most important voting events today are due soon.
The networks have delcared Kentucky for Clinton, and Oregon will go to Obama. But will it be enough?
Clinton is likely to have a 30 point lead in Kentucky, whereas Obama is looking to win Oregan with a 10 point lead.
Is it enough to keep her in the running?
She's not in the running, she's just waiting to be put down.
Obama needs to get 64 more delegates (pledged or super) to win, Hillary needs 246. Go figure!
Obviously there's not enough for her to win, but is there enough left for him to win? Realistically?
Sorry for the triple-post, but what happens to the delegates that the other Democrat candidates won before they pulled out? And also did anything happen with those states that Hilary won but weren't counted for having their primary too early?
In the remaining contests, primaries/caucuses, there are 86 pledged delegates left. But 64 for Obama will never come out of that. There are STILL 214 superdelegates who are yet to endorse, so yes it is realistic he'll actually get over the number needed to win. There are basically 300 delegates LEFT that are up for grabs, for Hillary to win she'd have to capture 71.3% of those remaning! IMPOSSIBLE.
Actually those pledged delegates for Edwards can be transferred to Obama, though they may vote however they please in reality. Saying that only 9 of Edward's delegates are still tied to him.
With Michigan and Florida, there is a committee meeting (the Rules & Bylaws Committee) where the fate of the votes will be decided. They are meeting on 31 May, and there are many possible outcomes to it, ranging from halfing the delegates to including all of them to not including any. HOWEVER, even with the FULL Florida and Michigan results included, Obama is still in the lead 2040 to 1972.
You are a WEALTH of knowledge my dear, thank you
Warning, a VERY post:
The Democrat Rules and Bylaws Committee are meeting today to discuss and decide the fate of Michigan and Florida's previously disallowed primaries.
I've watched a bit of it, the Clinton campaign's Florida representative presenting to the Committee was EXCELLENT. I imagine they will allow Florida's results as per the original vote but half the number of total pledged delegates as a penalty. Though I think there are VERY good grounds for reinstating 100% of the delegates.
Michigan's case is slightly more difficult to predict as Clinton was the only main name on the ballot, with the other being "Uncommitted". Voting "Uncommitted" is a perfectly valid vote, and if the delegates are reinstated, most of the uncommitted will actually choose Obama anyway. They can act like superdelegates. The argument is around whether the committee should just award Obama with those delegates and be done with it. A 69-59 delegate split to Clinton is likely.
The DNC will be taking a big risk if they let Florida and Michigan get away with this unscaved. Won't more states play the same game next time around?
I heard a punishment of seating all Florida's delgates, but giving them half a vote each instead was more likely.
In other more interesting news... it is expected that Obama will claim victory on Tuesday, when the primary season ends. He's going to do it in the Minnesota arena that the Republicans will hold their convention this summer. Symbolic much?
First point is a very good one, they will have to penalise both states in some way I think.
Yes the Florida punishment you describe is the one I mean. Basically there with be a 50% representation of Florida's vote.
I complete ingored the middle bit of your second paragraph. I do that all the time. Novels always confuse me.
In Florida the reason the date was brought forward was because the Florida legislature had to vote on a measure that would bring about ballot machine reform and attached to that was a Republican amendment to bring the primary date forward. The Florida Democrats actually OPPOSED that specific amendment but were defeated because of the large Republican majority in Florida. That's why there are grounds to say that Florida should be allowed to seat 100% of its delegates. The Democrats didn't actually choose to bring forward the date unlike in Michigan.
Oh, that sounds fair. I still don't understand the interaction between state laws and the primary process. I've heard of some prior arrangements as being rules unconstitutional, but I can't see why parties hold the primaries in any manner they want.
It's SO complicated. You have the national level rules from the parties, i.e. the DNC saying Iowa and New Hampshire go first, and state level rules in some states where the state legislature mostly by tradition codify the dates of their primary into LAW. So you have the state level parties operating under national party rules and state laws - often conflicting. TOTAL MESS.
I say get rid of superdelegates alltogether and hold all the primaries and caucuses in the month of January/February.
I'm not so sure having a national primary is a good idea. Bill Clinton would never have been democratic candidate.
My ideal would be a process where the order of the primaries is determined by a ballot in the autumn before the election year. One or two in the first week, another two in the following weeks, climaxing in super tuesdays in february and march.
The Committee has just ruled UNANIMOUSLY that Florida pledged delegates will go to the convention with a HALF vote each. So results from Florida look like this: Obama 34.5, Clinton 52.5, Edwards 5.5
Michigan is being debated, looks like they will go for 69-59 split in favour of Clinton. Though one of Clinton's supporters has suggested she will take this further to ANOTHER committee.
Ok they went for half votes in Michigan too for both pledged and superdelegates.
THE CURRENT STATE OF PLAY
Needed to win nomination:
Looks like Obama will still wrap this up if he gets about 20-30 superdelegates to support him by Tuesday after the last primaries. There are 86 pledged delegates left in the contests on Tuesday and 205 superdelegates still to endorse.
Hillary is such a cunt.
Just a reminder it's going to END imminently... the Associated Press are reporting that Clinton has said she'd be open to run on Obama's ticket
A "tsunami" of superdelegates are meant to be endorsing Obama after the last two primaries are announced tonight. Obama has picked up 8.5 superdelegates today with Clinton picking up 0.5 from a Floridian.
Updated STATE OF PLAY:
Needed to win:
So by the end of tonight Barack should be starting his campaign for the whitehouse then?
Hillary needs to start bumping off those Obama superdelegates.
Um, 0.5 of a superdelegate? Are some part time?
Florida has been punished by the national Democrats for holding their primary early, so it was decided on Saturday that all the Floridian delegates will get half a vote.
All credit to her for fighting to the end though!
Florida only gives women-superdelegates half votes because they can't be trusted not to vote for the most attractive candidate.
He's giving a MAJOR speech in Minnesota this evening, I don't know if he'll have CLINCHED it but I have a sneaky feeling this DELUGE of superdelegate endorsements will happen timely enough.
Pelosi's group presumeably will announce soon, right?
I can't see why Clinton would want to be VP. After this run and now that Teddy Kennedy is on the decline, her influence and power in the senate can only increase.