Oscars 2020: Who's in the race?

Discussion in 'Moopy Odeon' started by Jark, Nov 6, 2019.

  1. Jark

    Jark User

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    As ever I'm obsessively following the Oscars hype to see who's in the race - you can find critics' predictions updated daily on Gold Derby.

    Big stories of this season so far include The Irishman getting wild rave reviews (tied with Parasite as the year's best-scored film on Metacritic with 95), opening up the possibility of a Netflix original winning Best Pic. Parasite is doing great business at the specialist box office (biggest average per screen on opening weekend since La La Land) and I think it's already the biggest Korean grosser in the US. Judy has done great and Renee is arguably still the Best Actress frontrunner.

    On the blockbuster side of things, Joker is headed to a billion dollars and an almost certain nomination for Joaquin Phoenix in Best Actor, and Jennifer Lopez still seems to have plenty of hype for Supporting Actress in Hustlers. Once Upon A Time in Hollywood is a lock for Picture/Director/Actor, Adam Driver and Scar Jo are critically adored in Marriage Story, and Moopy faves like Laura Dern and Annette Bening are in the Supporting Actress mix.

    Sam Mendes' 1917 hasn't been screened yet and the Roger Ailes sexual harassment story Bombshell is still under embargo but both are considered Best Picture threats with Charlize Theron looking good for another Best Actress nomination.

    SO please tell me what you want to do well, what you think will do well, share precursor awards/nominations, predict in each category if you like, and generally GEEK OUT about the never-ending drama of AWARDS SEASON :disco:
     
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  2. Ellie

    Ellie Super talented triple threat

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    I vote for Uncut Gems which doesn’t stand a chance, but it’s so much better and more interesting than 2-3 star fare like The Irishman and A Beautiful Day In The Neighbourhood.

    I genuinely haven’t seen a deserving Best Actor performance yet but again, it sounds crazy but Adam Sandler is seriously good here and does stand a chance of a nomination.
     
  3. Jark

    Jark User

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    Here are my predictions for the big ones

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
    1. Al Pacino (The Irishman)
    2. Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood)
    3. Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time...)
    4. Willem Defoe (The Lighthouse)
    5. Anthony Hopkins (The Two Popes)

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
    1. Laura Dern (Marriage Story)
    2. Jennifer Lopez (Hustlers)
    3. Shuzhen Zhou (The Farewell)
    4. Margot Robbie (Bombshell)
    5. Florence Pugh (Little Women)

    BEST ACTOR
    1. Adam Driver (Marriage Story)
    2. Joaquin Phoenix (Joker)
    3. Robert De Niro (The Irishman)
    4. Leonardo DiCaprio (Once Upon a Time...)
    5. Eddie Murphy (Dolemite is My Name)

    BEST ACTRESS
    1. Renee Zellweger (Judy)
    2. Charlize Theron (Bombshell)
    3. Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story)
    4. Saoirse Ronan (Little Women)
    5. Awkwafina (The Farewell)

    BEST DIRECTOR
    1. Martin Scorsese (The Irishman)
    2. Sam Mendes (1917)
    3. Quentin Tarantino (Once Upon a Time...)
    4. Bong Joon Ho (Parasite)
    5. Noah Baumbach (Marriage Story)

    BEST PICTURE
    1. The Irishman
    2. Marriage Story
    3. Parasite
    4. Once Upon a Time...
    5. 1917
    6. Jojo Rabbit
    7. Little Women
    8. Bombshell
    9. Joker
    10. The Two Popes
     
  4. Peekaboo

    Peekaboo User

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    That Bombshell film looks like fun :disco:

    I saw The Farewell the other day and had no idea it was Awkwafina in the lead until the credits rolled. It's an interesting film but I wouldn't say she does anything special in it.
     
  5. VoR

    VoR Forever in our hearts #Justice4Barb

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    The reviews have been mixed, but I think the strong box office performance for Harriet makes Cynthia Erivo a real threat for Best Actress.

    Hoping Antonio Banderas can sneak his first nomination for Pain & Glory too, there seems to be a lot of goodwill towards him right now.

    The Farewell I haven't seen yet but it kind of feels like maybe it peaked too soon?
     
  6. Ellie

    Ellie Super talented triple threat

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    Christian Bale In Le Mans 66 is his best performance yet IMO, but I can’t decide whether it’s Lead or Supporting, which means the Academy will likely ignore it altogether.
     
  7. VoR

    VoR Forever in our hearts #Justice4Barb

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    He looks like absolute shit in the trailer. All that dramatic weight gain and loss over the years has aged him horribly.
     
  8. Ellie

    Ellie Super talented triple threat

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    Well it’s not shit and neither is he. Easily his most likeable and crowd pleasing role too.
     
  9. Phoenix

    Phoenix L to the OG

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    Tom Hanks can’t be supporting, it’s a biopic and he’s playing the lead. The Lighthouse is just too alienating to get anything.

    1917 looks like every other dreary world war 2 movie (i seriously hate the genre) and I also did not like Jojo.

    The Farewell is an excellent movie but probably for screenplay which seems to be A24’s forte.

    I would love it if the rich mother from Parasite managed a supporting actress nomination (everyone in the cast deserves a nomination).

    Little Women has been well received so I’m hoping a director nomination for Greta.
     
  10. Jark

    Jark User

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    Haven't seen it but everything I've read suggests Matthew Rhys is lead and has much more screen time...
     
  11. Ellie

    Ellie Super talented triple threat

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    I have seen it and Tom Hanks is very much a supporting role. It’s not a biopic at all and another dull Father/Son story about “My DAD DIDN’T LOVE ME” under the guise of a Mr. Rogers story. Has very little to do with him at all.
     
  12. Alla

    Alla ®

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    I'm not exactly sure how someone is elegible for a nomination, but don't they try sometimes an actor with a lead role for the supporting one, because they have a better chance? I read about this somewhere but I'm not sure how that works.
     
  13. Phoenix

    Phoenix L to the OG

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    The studios submit as they see fit and there has been many instances where they submit a lead actor or actress in supporting for a guarantee or a better chance in winning (happens a lot with actresses because lead actress is usually stacked).
     
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  14. Ellie

    Ellie Super talented triple threat

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    Absolute worst example of that was Jamie Foxx being submitted and nominated in Supporting for Collateral despite being the clear lead who is in every single scene. He never stood a chance anyway as he was clearly winning lead for Ray in the same year.
     
  15. cwej

    cwej User

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    I assume you mean he LOOKS like shit, rather than his performance looks like shit. Love him or hate him, he's an extraordinarily talented actor in everything he ever does.
     
  16. VoR

    VoR Forever in our hearts #Justice4Barb

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    Antonio Banderas just got a significant boost with a win for Best Actor at the New York Critic's Circle Awards. Lupita Nyong'o also won Best Actress for Us. Laura Dern and Joe Pesci won the supporting awards.
     
  17. Phoenix

    Phoenix L to the OG

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    I think Lupita’s best bet is a nomination but she won’t win.

    It seems that The Irishman is collecting all the Best Picture awards. I think it’s between it and Once Upon A Time.
     
  18. jivafox

    jivafox Stay sexy don’t get murdered

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    I’m hoping Timmy might scrape a supporting nod for Little Women since all the reviews are picking him out. :disco:
     
  19. VoR

    VoR Forever in our hearts #Justice4Barb

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    Golden Globe movie nominations

    Best Motion Picture - Drama

    The Irishman
    Marriage Story
    1917
    Joker
    The Two Popes

    Best Motion Picture - Comedy or Musical

    Dolemite Is My Name
    Jojo Rabbit
    Knives Out
    Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
    Rocketman

    Best Actor in a Motion Picture - Drama

    Christian Bale - Ford vs Ferrari/Le Mans '66
    Antonio Banderas - Pain & Glory
    Adam Driver - Marriage Story
    Joaquin Phoenix - Joker
    Jonathan Pryce - The Two Popes

    Best Actor in a Motion Picture - Comedy or Musical

    Daniel Craig - Knives Out
    Roman Griffin Davis - Jojo Rabbit
    Leonardo DiCaprio - Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
    Taron Egerton - Rocketman
    Eddie Murphy - Dolemite Is My Name

    Best Actress in a Motion Picture - Drama

    Cynthia Erivo - Harriet
    Scarlett Johansson - Marriage Story
    Saoirse Ronan - Little Women
    Charlize Theron - Bombshell
    Renée Zellweger - Judy

    Best Actress in a Motion Picture - Comedy or Musical

    Awkwafina - The Farewell
    Ana de Armas - Knives Out
    Beanie Feldstein - Booksmart
    Emma Thompson - Late Night
    Cate Blanchett - Where'd You Go, Bernadette?

    Best Supporting Actor

    Tom Hanks -A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
    Anthony Hopkins - The Two Popes
    Al Pacino - The Irishman
    Joe Pesci - The Irishman
    Brad Pitt - Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

    Best Supporting Actress

    Kathy Bates - Richard Jewell
    Annette Bening - The Report
    Laura Dern - Marriage Story
    Jennifer Lopez - Hustlers (:disco:)
    Margot Robbie - Bombshell

    Best Director

    Martin Scorsese - The Irishman
    Quentin Tarantino - Once Upon a Time In Hollywood
    Bong Joon Ho - Parasite
    Sam Mendes - 1917
    Todd Phillips - Joker

    Best Screenplay

    The Irishman
    Marriage Story
    Parasite
    The Two Popes
    Once Upon A Time In Hollywood

    Best Original Song

    Beautiful Ghosts - Cats (Taylor Swift)
    (I’m Gonna) Love Me Again - Rocketman (Elton John)
    Spirit - The Lion King (Beyonce)
    Stand Up - Harriet (Cynthia Erivo)
    Into the Unknown - Frozen II (Idina Menzel)

    Best Original Score
    Daniel Pemberton - Motherless Brooklyn
    Alexandre Desplat - Little Women
    Hildur Guðnadóttir - Joker
    Thomas Newman - 1917
    Randy Newman - Marriage Story

    Best Animated Feature

    Frozen II
    How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
    The Lion King
    Missing Link
    Toy Story 4
     
    Last edited: Dec 9, 2019
  20. VoR

    VoR Forever in our hearts #Justice4Barb

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    Most noms:

    6: Marriage Story
    5: The Irishman, Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
    4: Joker, The Two Popes
    3: Knives Out, Rocketman, 1917
    2: Bombshell, Dolemite Is My Name, Jojo Rabbit, Harriet, Parasite, Frozen II, Little Women

    Notable snubs

    Robert DeNiro - The Irishman (Looks like that one's all about Pesci vs Pacino for the supporting nomination)
    Greta Gerwig - Little Women, Marielle Heller - A Beautiful Day in the Neighbourhood (All-male Best Director lineup again...)
    Adam Sandler - Uncut Gems
    Aladdin - Speechless in best song (Good, it was crap)

    Little Women kind of got screwed overall with only two nominations, one of those being score.

    Most surprising nomination is probably Cate Blanchett in Where'd You Go Bernadette, a film nobody saw. It wasn't even reviewed well.
     
    Last edited: Dec 9, 2019
  21. jivafox

    jivafox Stay sexy don’t get murdered

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    god what a VERY BORING season this is going to be
     
  22. Phoenix

    Phoenix L to the OG

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    The Farewell in Foreign is a big :manson:

    It seems like Little Women is not going to make a dent, good reactions but not stellar and women can’t be awarded for being just good.

    Where’d You Go Bernadette was alright, the globes always go for something obscure.
     
  23. Peekaboo

    Peekaboo User

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    I loved that comedy Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, especially the bit where Brad Pitt smashed a woman's face against a marble fireplace. It was HILARIOUS.

    Not a vintage selection although I'm here for that glorified TV movie that is Bombshell. Marriage Story looks like one of those terribly earnest and deep down terribly conservative late 70s / early 80s American films like Kramer VS Kramer and Ordinary People, even the lightning in the film suggests they're going for that.
     
  24. wurst

    wurst User

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    Tbh in such an uninspiring year Parasite and Pain And Glory should REALLY be getting a lot more noms despite being foreign language (was Burning a 2019 film? That should have won EVERY AWARD GOING!)

    At least Bombshell looks FUN!
     
  25. wurst

    wurst User

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    Just noticed Big Little Lies getting some TV noms despite season 2 being a glorified Sunset Beach :D
     
  26. wurst

    wurst User

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    There is a VERY OBVIOUS OMISSION for Best Supporting Actress :angry::disco:

    [​IMG]
     
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  27. VoR

    VoR Forever in our hearts #Justice4Barb

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    Screen Actors Guild Award Nominations

    Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role

    CHRISTIAN BALE / Ken Miles – “FORD v FERRARI”
    LEONARDO DiCAPRIO / Rick Dalton -- “ONCE UPON A TIME…IN HOLLYWOOD”
    ADAM DRIVER / Charlie Barber – “MARRIAGE STORY”
    TARON EGERTON / Elton John – “ROCKETMAN”
    JOAQUIN PHOENIX / Arthur Fleck – “JOKER”

    Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role

    CYNTHIA ERIVO / Harriet/Minty – “HARRIET”
    SCARLETT JOHANSSON / Nicole Barber – “MARRIAGE STORY”
    LUPITA NYONG’O / Adelaide Wilson/Red – “US”
    CHARLIZE THERON / Megyn Kelly – “BOMBSHELL”
    RENÉE ZELLWEGER / Judy Garland – “JUDY”

    Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
    JAMIE FOXX / Walter McMillian – “JUST MERCY”
    TOM HANKS / Fred Rogers – “A BEAUTIFUL DAY IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD”
    AL PACINO / Jimmy Hoffa – “THE IRISHMAN”
    JOE PESCI / Russell Bufalino – “THE IRISHMAN”
    BRAD PITT / Cliff Booth – “ONCE UPON A TIME…IN HOLLYWOOD

    Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
    LAURA DERN / Nora Fanshaw – “MARRIAGE STORY”
    SCARLETT JOHANSSON / Rosie – “JOJO RABBIT
    NICOLE KIDMAN / Gretchen Carlson – “BOMBSHELL”
    JENNIFER LOPEZ / Ramona – “HUSTLERS”
    MARGOT ROBBIE / Kayla Pospisil – “BOMBSHELL”

    Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
    BOMBSHELL
    CONNIE BRITTON / Beth Ailes
    ALLISON JANNEY / Susan Estrich
    NICOLE KIDMAN / Gretchen Carlson
    JOHN LITHGOW / Roger Ailes
    MALCOLM McDOWELL / Rupert Murdoch
    KATE McKINNON / Jess Carr
    MARGOT ROBBIE / Kayla Pospisil
    CHARLIZE THERON / Megyn Kelly

    THE IRISHMAN
    BOBBY CANNAVALE / Skinny Razor
    ROBERT DE NIRO / Frank Sheeran
    STEPHEN GRAHAM / Anthony “Tony Pro” Provenzano
    HARVEY KEITEL / Angelo Bruno
    AL PACINO / Jimmy Hoffa
    ANNA PAQUIN / Older Peggy Sheeran
    JOE PESCI / Russell Bufalino
    RAY ROMANO / Bill Bufalino

    JOJO RABBIT
    ALFIE ALLEN / Finkel
    ROMAN GRIFFIN DAVIS / Jojo
    SCARLETT JOHANSSON / Rosie
    THOMASIN McKENZIE / Elsa
    STEPHEN MERCHANT / Deertz
    SAM ROCKWELL / Capt. Klenzendorf
    TAIKA WAITITI / Adolf
    REBEL WILSON / Fraulein Rahm

    ONCE UPON A TIME…IN HOLLYWOOD
    AUSTIN BUTLER / Tex
    JULIA BUTTERS / Trudi
    BRUCE DERN / George Spahn
    LEONARDO DiCAPRIO / Rick Dalton
    DAKOTA FANNING / Squeaky Fromme
    EMILE HIRSCH / Jay Sebring
    DAMIAN LEWIS / Steve McQueen
    MIKE MOH / Bruce Lee
    TIMOTHY OLYPHANT / James Stacy
    AL PACINO / Marvin Schwarz
    LUKE PERRY / Wayne Maunder
    BRAD PITT / Cliff Booth
    MARGARET QUALLEY / Pussycat
    MARGOT ROBBIE / Sharon Tate

    PARASITE
    HYAE JIN CHANG / Chung Sook
    YEO JEONG CHO / Yeon Kyo
    WOO SHIK CHOI / Ki Woo
    HYEON JUN JUNG / Da Song
    ZISO JUNG / Da Hye
    JUNG EUN LEE / Moon Gwang
    SUN KYUN LEE / Dong Ik
    MYUNG HOON PARK / Geun Se
    SO DAM PARK / Ki Jung
    KANG HO SONG / Ki Taek
     
  28. VoR

    VoR Forever in our hearts #Justice4Barb

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    Another miss for De Niro, his campaign looks close to dead in the water.

    Good day for Taron Egerton. SAG and Globe nominations make him a strong contender for a Rocketman nom. Which it seems may come at Antonio Banderas' expense.

    Cynthia Erivo firmly in the Best Actress mix now. Lupita back in the race after her Golden Globes snub, Little Women shut out again. That could be the shock Oscar flop of the season the way things are going. Awkwafina may also miss out for The Farewell.

    The Two Popes is the only notable shut-out in Supporting Actor. I haven't heard anything about that Jamie Foxx movie so it may be a SAG quirk. Pitt, Hanks, Pesci and Pacino look fairly nailed on, so there's just that one open slot to play for.

    J.Lo and Laura Dern cement their frontrunner statuses for Best Supporting Actress. Margot Robbie facing a split with Nicole Kidman there, but maintains momentum for the Oscar nomination.
     
  29. wurst

    wurst User

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    This all made me remember that a. The Goldfinch film actually EXISTS, and b. at one point it was considered prime awards season fodder :D
     
  30. Jark

    Jark User

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    Bombshell :disco:
     
  31. wurst

    wurst User

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    Also - surprised to see Midsommer being ignored in SUCH a weak year. Maybe it's just too weird/divisive/disturbing for awards.
     
  32. Phoenix

    Phoenix L to the OG

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    Is it a weak year? Also it’s not an awards movie, Hereditary had Toni and was more plausible and didn’t get in.
     
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  33. cwej

    cwej User

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    Pleased to see Lupita nominated - I think her performance was astonishing and I really love it when horror movies do well.
     
  34. Jark

    Jark User

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    Current odds from GoldDerby

    SUPPORTING ACTOR
    1. Brad Pitt - Once Upon a Time
    2. Al Pacino - The Irishman
    3. Tom Hanks - A Beautiful Day in the Neighbourhood
    4. Joe Pesci - The Irishman
    5. Willem Dafoe - The Lighthouse

    SUPPORTING ACTRESS
    1. Laura Dern - Marriage Story
    2. Jennifer Lopez - Hustlers
    3. Margot Robbie - Bombshell
    4. Zhao Shuzhen - The Farewell
    5. Florence Pugh - Little Women

    BEST ACTOR
    1. Joaquin Phoenix - Joker
    2. Adam Driver - Marriage Story
    3. Leonardo DiCaprio - Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
    4. Antonio Banderas - Pain & Glory
    5. Robert De Niro - The Irishman

    BEST ACTRESS
    1. Charlize Theron - Bombshell
    2. Renee Zellweger - Judy
    3. Scarlett Johansson - Marriage Story
    4. Saoirse Ronan - Little Women
    5. Awkwafina - The Farewell

    BEST DIRECTOR
    1. Martin Scorsese - The Irishman
    2. Quentin Tarantino - Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
    3. Bong Joon Ho - Parasite
    4. Sam Mendes - 1917
    5. Noah Baumbach - Marriage Story

    BEST PICTURE
    1. The Irishman
    2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
    3. Marriage Story
    4. Parasite
    5. 1917
    6. Jojo Rabbit
    7. Joker
    8. Little Women
    9. Ford v Ferrari
    10. Bombshell

    more here
     
  35. Ellie

    Ellie Super talented triple threat

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    I just watched her in Little Monsters last night. LOVED IT. Never knew she could be so funny.
     
  36. Jark

    Jark User

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    National Society of Film Critics announced yesterday

    Best Picture
    Parasite (runners up Little Women, Once Upon...)

    Best Screenplay
    Parasite (runners up Little Women, Once Upon...)

    Supporting Actor
    Brad Pitt, Once Upon... (runners up Jo Pesci/Wesley Snipes/Song Kang Ho)

    Supporting Actress
    Laura Dern, Marriage Story (runners up J-Lo/Florence Pugh)

    Best Actor
    Antonio Banderas, Pain & Glory (runners up Adam Driver/Adam Sandler)

    Best Actress
    Mary Kay Place, Diane (runners up Florence Pugh/Zhao Tao)

    Parasite is all momentum right now and I don't see it slowing down. It won't be nominated in acting categories but I think a win is perfectly possible in director, maybe even best pic at this rate.
     
  37. Alla

    Alla ®

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    Oh wow, it looks the first Oscar nomination for Banderas is a lock.
     
  38. ameraal

    ameraal trash

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    parasite is absolutely a-buzzing. i haven't seen it (or little women) yet but if the other competition is once upon a time or the irishman then brang it own.

    i hope banderas gets the oscar. though driver was good too.
     
  39. ameraal

    ameraal trash

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    ugh, i forgot about phoenix.

    yeah, yeah, banderas has no chance, i know.
     
  40. VoR

    VoR Forever in our hearts #Justice4Barb

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    Laura Dern just won the Golden Globe. I’d say that puts her down as a lock for the Oscar. The Golden Globes are notorious starfuckers, so if J.Lo can’t win that it’s over...
     

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