US - Election Day 2008

Discussion in 'Current Affairs & Debate' started by Madison, Nov 4, 2008.

  1. Madison

    Madison Everything goes up by six

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    <table class="infobox vevent" style="width: 22em; font-size: 90%;"><tbody><tr><td colspan="5" style="background: rgb(204, 204, 255) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; text-align: center; font-size: 140%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;">United States presidential election, 2008
    </td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="5" style="text-align: center;">November 4, 2008</td> </tr> <tr> <th width="10%" align="left">
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    </td> <td style="border-bottom: 6px solid rgb(51, 51, 255);" align="center">[​IMG]</td> <td style="border-bottom: 6px solid rgb(255, 51, 51);" align="center">[​IMG]</td> <td style="" align="center">
    </td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="2" align="left">Nominee</td> <td align="center">Barack Obama</td> <td align="center">John McCain</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="2" style="text-align: left;">Party</td> <td align="center">Democratic</td> <td align="center">Republican</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="2">Home state</td> <td align="center">Illinois</td> <td align="center">Arizona</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="2">Running mate</td> <td align="center">Joe Biden</td> <td align="center">Sarah Palin</td></tr></tbody></table>

    <object type="application/x-shockwave-flash" data="http://widgets.clearspring.com/o/48ff995c49a30ff2/4910bfb0a822cae0/490f47c4d22e0f27/7c295ea9/-cpid/ffbd76980a525a" id="W48ff995c49a30ff24910bfb0a822cae0" width="400" height="545">



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    Well Moopy, it's finally here. The polls are about to open in the east coast, and within 24 hours we should have a result.

    • Each state (and the District of Columbia) has a number of electoral votes, ranging from 3 to 55 depending on population
    • Generally the states are winner takes all - they give all their electoral votes to the candidate who received the most votes (Nebraska and Maine potentially can split their votes)
    • The magic number is 270. Get 270 or more and they win, although Obama would probably win 269-269.

    Here is a guide to the timings: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/us_elections_2008/7705795.stm

    Coverage starts on BBC One at 23:15

    The states to look out for

    In 2004, Bush beat Kerry 286 to 253 (technically 252).

    To win in this year, Obama needs to hold onto all the states Kerry won in 2004, and win 17 extra votes. Here's where they could come from:

    Iowa - 7 EV (odds - 92%)
    Colorado - 9 EV (odds - 90%)
    Nevada - 5 EV (odds - 90%)
    New Mexico - 5 EV (odds - 90%)
    Virginia - 13 EV (odds - 88%)
    Ohio - 20 EV (odds - 81%)
    Florida - 27 EV (odds - 77%)
    North Carolina - 15 EV (odds - 61%)
    Missouri - 11 EV (odds - 52%)
    Indiana - 11 EV (odds - 36%)
    Montana - 3 EV (odds - 32%)
    North Dakota - 3 EV (odds - 28%)


    Georgia - 15 EV (odds - 25%)

    McCain is hoping to win Pennslyvania, which was a Kerry state in 2004. Pennslyvania has 21 EV, so if Obama loses it, he needs 38 votes from the above list (Virginia upwards). The current betting odds say McCain has only an 11% chance of winning Pennslyvania though.
     
    Last edited: Nov 5, 2008
  2. funky

    funky OH SHE’LL HAVE TO CALL YOU BACK

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    OK ACTUALLY

    could someone please explain the District of Columbia thing to me - why is it not a state?

    How many electoral votes do they get? I assume that means there are 51 sets of electoral votes in an election...? Does DC get a Governer too?

    Madison you'll know.
     
  3. Madison

    Madison Everything goes up by six

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    The District dates back to the early days. There was a lot of infighting between the colonies, and the framers of the constitution didn't want one state to gain prominence above the others by hosting the federal government.

    The constitution provided for a federal district, not part of any state, to be created and to be the seat of government. Virginia and Maryland? gave up land for the purpose.

    It didn't always get a vote in presidential elections - I don't think people envisaged Washington DC growing into a big city. Eventually, the politicians recognised it wasn't fair that these people got no vote, so they ammended the constitution (23rd/24th?) giving the same number of votes as if it were a state, but not more than the least populous state. That means 3 votes.
     
  4. Sheena

    Sheena MAKE IT QUICK, LUCILLE!

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    When do we find out the result then?
     
  5. funky

    funky OH SHE’LL HAVE TO CALL YOU BACK

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    about 3am or 4am assuming there are no "too close to call" states

    *watches as Florida does 17 recounts*
     
  6. jonhawk

    jonhawk Bluffin' with my muffin

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    Exciting stuff! I've just texted my Pennsylvanian friend and sent him positive Obama thoughts.
     
  7. Madison

    Madison Everything goes up by six

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    If Obama loses, we can all blame jonhawk for not thinking hard enough.
     
  8. funky

    funky OH SHE’LL HAVE TO CALL YOU BACK

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    I'm going to blame SNL for giving the McCain ticket such a big profile so close to the election.
     
  9. jonhawk

    jonhawk Bluffin' with my muffin

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    Well my friend has already voted Obama by postal vote - so that's good. He informs me that him Mum, a life-long Republican is voting Obama and his Dad is very much considering it too.
     
  10. Madison

    Madison Everything goes up by six

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    The states to look out for

    In 2004, Bush beat Kerry 286 to 253 (technically 252).

    To win in this year, Obama needs to hold onto all the states Kerry won in 2004, and win 17 extra votes. Here's where they could come from:

    Iowa - 7 EV (odds - 92%)
    Colorado - 9 EV (odds - 90%)
    Nevada - 5 EV (odds - 90%)
    New Mexico - 5 EV (odds - 90%)
    Virginia - 13 EV (odds - 88%)
    Ohio - 20 EV (odds - 81%)
    Florida - 27 EV (odds - 77%)
    North Carolina - 15 EV (odds - 61%)
    Missouri - 11 EV (odds - 52%)
    Indiana - 11 EV (odds - 36%)
    Montana - 3 EV (odds - 32%)
    North Dakota - 3 EV (odds - 28%)
    Georgia - 15 EV (odds - 25%)

    McCain is hoping to win Pennslyvania, which was a Kerry state in 2004. Pennslyvania has 21 EV, so if Obama loses it, he needs 38 votes from the above list (Virginia upwards). The current betting odds say McCain has only an 11% chance of winning Pennslyvania though.
     
    Last edited: Nov 4, 2008
  11. Crash

    Crash Thank You

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    I am RATHER excited

    I'll be getting the BOOZE and NIBBLES in :disco:
     
  12. funky

    funky OH SHE’LL HAVE TO CALL YOU BACK

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    I can't really see Obama getting Virginia, but I can't see him losing PA either.

    He pretty much already has the smaller swings in the bag.

    I still think it comes down to Ohio and Florida...
     
  13. Suomi

    Suomi User

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    This election result is gonna be immense, because the outcry of whatever side doesn't win is gonna be huge.


    This is more exciting than Eurovision voting, mainly because I'm not crying and wanting to turn the TV off.
     
  14. jonhawk

    jonhawk Bluffin' with my muffin

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    Why can't you see him winning Virginia? He WILL.
     
  15. funky

    funky OH SHE’LL HAVE TO CALL YOU BACK

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    I HOPE so... I dunno, some of the polling has been a bit DODGE.
     
  16. TurnerPrize

    TurnerPrize time to dance

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    Oh I am getting nervous now too. I do think Nana Obama snuffed it at a handy time though, but that might just be the X factor viewer in me.
     
  17. Tetris-Rock

    Tetris-Rock one of those "they/thems"

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    Unfortunately we can't expect Obama to burst into a rendition of "There's No-one Quite Like Grandma" for votes like R Wayne on "Britain's Got The Pop Factor."
     
  18. Jake

    Jake On A Mission

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    Was is Palin today? Now that is a party i want to be at.
     
  19. POP!

    POP! Not unhinged or unhappy

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    Apparently there's been quite a few lines wrapping around buildings and down streets already, and a voting machine has broken down in northern New Jersey just a bit ago.

    The Republicans are STILL clutching at straws and are telling Dems that they are required to vote Wednesday Nov 5, if anybody falls for THAT, I'm not sure they deserve to vote
     
  20. funky

    funky OH SHE’LL HAVE TO CALL YOU BACK

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    I think they assume that Democrats are ALSO backward bible bashing inbreeders who will believe anything...
     
  21. Beverley

    Beverley I Don't Wanna Change A THI-ING

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    I'm very excited and nervous. I think I'm going to attend an Obama party tonight.
     
  22. jonhawk

    jonhawk Bluffin' with my muffin

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    Ooh where's that?
     
  23. Beverley

    Beverley I Don't Wanna Change A THI-ING

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    I know that LSE is holding one until 6am and I also think theres one in Leicester Square, which I am probably attending. :o
     
  24. jonhawk

    jonhawk Bluffin' with my muffin

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    Nice!


    Have we already mentioned Indiana? I think that could be our first indication at how the night is going to play out. Polls close at 23.00 (GMT) there and if Obama wins it, it could be our first sign of a landslide.
     
  25. funky

    funky OH SHE’LL HAVE TO CALL YOU BACK

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    I keep saying Indiana is one of the more significant ones, which he WILL win - it's Ohio and Florida that I'm worried about
     
  26. Madison

    Madison Everything goes up by six

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    Indiana is still polling McCain's way, and the betting markets say only 36% chance for Obama.

    But if you do put him in Obama's column, then its 11 EVs along with Iowa's 7 EVs gives you 18 and you don't need to care about Florida and Ohio.
     
    Last edited: Nov 4, 2008
  27. jonhawk

    jonhawk Bluffin' with my muffin

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    But he can STILL win without Ohio or Florida. As long as he has Pennsylvania and Virginia. I think once we get news that Obama has won either Ohio or Florida it's definitely game over for McCain.
     
  28. funky

    funky OH SHE’LL HAVE TO CALL YOU BACK

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    I can see him getting Indiana before he gets Virginia

    Maybe I've been watching the wrong polls :D
     
  29. jonhawk

    jonhawk Bluffin' with my muffin

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    The Real Clear Politics average is as follows for the polls in Indiana and Virginia:

    Indiana: McCain leads +1.4%

    Virginia: Obama leads +4.4%
     
  30. Madison

    Madison Everything goes up by six

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    I think maybe you have - the democrats have been doing really well in Virginia, winning the Governorship and the last Senate election (and probably today's one).

    [​IMG]
     
  31. funky

    funky OH SHE’LL HAVE TO CALL YOU BACK

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    Fuck you're right - I had them the wrong way around. :manson:

    oh well, I do still think Indiana is in his grasp, but I also still think either way that it's Ohio and Florida that are the more difficult to predict.
     
  32. jonhawk

    jonhawk Bluffin' with my muffin

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    Florida moreso than Ohio. Still I'm quietly confident Obama will win Ohio by at least 1/1.5 percentage points.
     
    Last edited: Nov 4, 2008
  33. Strawberry Jam

    Strawberry Jam User

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  34. Madison

    Madison Everything goes up by six

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    http://www.electoral-vote.com

     
    Last edited: Nov 4, 2008
  35. funky

    funky OH SHE’LL HAVE TO CALL YOU BACK

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    I think he'll get Iowa, NM, Colorado, Nevada, Ohio and yes OK maybe Virginia - but I'm REALLY hoping he gets Florida.

    North Carolina would be AMAZING
     
  36. dUb

    dUb WENT TO WAR FOR U

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    How sure are we that Obama will win?

    I'm going to say 70% SURE
     
  37. Crash

    Crash Thank You

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    I'm like 90% sure he'll win
     
  38. jonhawk

    jonhawk Bluffin' with my muffin

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    95% sure.
     
  39. funky

    funky OH SHE’LL HAVE TO CALL YOU BACK

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    right, what's the best channel to watch?

    I'm sure there'll be FLICKING but I want to make sure I have access to the best anchor team.
     
  40. POP!

    POP! Not unhinged or unhappy

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    I only trust CNN with this election night, MSNBC is soooo far left and Fox News is obviously so far to the right.
     

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