<table class="infobox vevent" style="width: 22em; font-size: 90%;"><tbody><tr><td colspan="5" style="background: rgb(204, 204, 255) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; text-align: center; font-size: 140%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;">United States presidential election, 2008 </td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="5" style="text-align: center;">November 4, 2008</td> </tr> <tr> <th width="10%" align="left"> </th> <th width="10%" align="left"> </th> <th width="20%" align="center"> </th> <th width="20%" align="center"> </th> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="2"> </td> <td style="border-bottom: 6px solid rgb(51, 51, 255);" align="center"></td> <td style="border-bottom: 6px solid rgb(255, 51, 51);" align="center"></td> <td style="" align="center"> </td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="2" align="left">Nominee</td> <td align="center">Barack Obama</td> <td align="center">John McCain</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="2" style="text-align: left;">Party</td> <td align="center">Democratic</td> <td align="center">Republican</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="2">Home state</td> <td align="center">Illinois</td> <td align="center">Arizona</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="2">Running mate</td> <td align="center">Joe Biden</td> <td align="center">Sarah Palin</td></tr></tbody></table> <object type="application/x-shockwave-flash" data="http://widgets.clearspring.com/o/48ff995c49a30ff2/4910bfb0a822cae0/490f47c4d22e0f27/7c295ea9/-cpid/ffbd76980a525a" id="W48ff995c49a30ff24910bfb0a822cae0" width="400" height="545"> </object> Well Moopy, it's finally here. The polls are about to open in the east coast, and within 24 hours we should have a result. Each state (and the District of Columbia) has a number of electoral votes, ranging from 3 to 55 depending on population Generally the states are winner takes all - they give all their electoral votes to the candidate who received the most votes (Nebraska and Maine potentially can split their votes) The magic number is 270. Get 270 or more and they win, although Obama would probably win 269-269. Here is a guide to the timings: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/us_elections_2008/7705795.stm Coverage starts on BBC One at 23:15 The states to look out for In 2004, Bush beat Kerry 286 to 253 (technically 252). To win in this year, Obama needs to hold onto all the states Kerry won in 2004, and win 17 extra votes. Here's where they could come from: Iowa - 7 EV (odds - 92%) Colorado - 9 EV (odds - 90%) Nevada - 5 EV (odds - 90%) New Mexico - 5 EV (odds - 90%) Virginia - 13 EV (odds - 88%) Ohio - 20 EV (odds - 81%) Florida - 27 EV (odds - 77%) North Carolina - 15 EV (odds - 61%) Missouri - 11 EV (odds - 52%) Indiana - 11 EV (odds - 36%) Montana - 3 EV (odds - 32%) North Dakota - 3 EV (odds - 28%) Georgia - 15 EV (odds - 25%) McCain is hoping to win Pennslyvania, which was a Kerry state in 2004. Pennslyvania has 21 EV, so if Obama loses it, he needs 38 votes from the above list (Virginia upwards). The current betting odds say McCain has only an 11% chance of winning Pennslyvania though.
OK ACTUALLY could someone please explain the District of Columbia thing to me - why is it not a state? How many electoral votes do they get? I assume that means there are 51 sets of electoral votes in an election...? Does DC get a Governer too? Madison you'll know.
The District dates back to the early days. There was a lot of infighting between the colonies, and the framers of the constitution didn't want one state to gain prominence above the others by hosting the federal government. The constitution provided for a federal district, not part of any state, to be created and to be the seat of government. Virginia and Maryland? gave up land for the purpose. It didn't always get a vote in presidential elections - I don't think people envisaged Washington DC growing into a big city. Eventually, the politicians recognised it wasn't fair that these people got no vote, so they ammended the constitution (23rd/24th?) giving the same number of votes as if it were a state, but not more than the least populous state. That means 3 votes.
about 3am or 4am assuming there are no "too close to call" states *watches as Florida does 17 recounts*
Well my friend has already voted Obama by postal vote - so that's good. He informs me that him Mum, a life-long Republican is voting Obama and his Dad is very much considering it too.
The states to look out for In 2004, Bush beat Kerry 286 to 253 (technically 252). To win in this year, Obama needs to hold onto all the states Kerry won in 2004, and win 17 extra votes. Here's where they could come from: Iowa - 7 EV (odds - 92%) Colorado - 9 EV (odds - 90%) Nevada - 5 EV (odds - 90%) New Mexico - 5 EV (odds - 90%) Virginia - 13 EV (odds - 88%) Ohio - 20 EV (odds - 81%) Florida - 27 EV (odds - 77%) North Carolina - 15 EV (odds - 61%) Missouri - 11 EV (odds - 52%) Indiana - 11 EV (odds - 36%) Montana - 3 EV (odds - 32%) North Dakota - 3 EV (odds - 28%) Georgia - 15 EV (odds - 25%) McCain is hoping to win Pennslyvania, which was a Kerry state in 2004. Pennslyvania has 21 EV, so if Obama loses it, he needs 38 votes from the above list (Virginia upwards). The current betting odds say McCain has only an 11% chance of winning Pennslyvania though.
I can't really see Obama getting Virginia, but I can't see him losing PA either. He pretty much already has the smaller swings in the bag. I still think it comes down to Ohio and Florida...
This election result is gonna be immense, because the outcry of whatever side doesn't win is gonna be huge. This is more exciting than Eurovision voting, mainly because I'm not crying and wanting to turn the TV off.
Oh I am getting nervous now too. I do think Nana Obama snuffed it at a handy time though, but that might just be the X factor viewer in me.
Unfortunately we can't expect Obama to burst into a rendition of "There's No-one Quite Like Grandma" for votes like R Wayne on "Britain's Got The Pop Factor."
Apparently there's been quite a few lines wrapping around buildings and down streets already, and a voting machine has broken down in northern New Jersey just a bit ago. The Republicans are STILL clutching at straws and are telling Dems that they are required to vote Wednesday Nov 5, if anybody falls for THAT, I'm not sure they deserve to vote
I think they assume that Democrats are ALSO backward bible bashing inbreeders who will believe anything...
I know that LSE is holding one until 6am and I also think theres one in Leicester Square, which I am probably attending.
Nice! Have we already mentioned Indiana? I think that could be our first indication at how the night is going to play out. Polls close at 23.00 (GMT) there and if Obama wins it, it could be our first sign of a landslide.
I keep saying Indiana is one of the more significant ones, which he WILL win - it's Ohio and Florida that I'm worried about
Indiana is still polling McCain's way, and the betting markets say only 36% chance for Obama. But if you do put him in Obama's column, then its 11 EVs along with Iowa's 7 EVs gives you 18 and you don't need to care about Florida and Ohio.
But he can STILL win without Ohio or Florida. As long as he has Pennsylvania and Virginia. I think once we get news that Obama has won either Ohio or Florida it's definitely game over for McCain.
The Real Clear Politics average is as follows for the polls in Indiana and Virginia: Indiana: McCain leads +1.4% Virginia: Obama leads +4.4%
I think maybe you have - the democrats have been doing really well in Virginia, winning the Governorship and the last Senate election (and probably today's one).
Fuck you're right - I had them the wrong way around. oh well, I do still think Indiana is in his grasp, but I also still think either way that it's Ohio and Florida that are the more difficult to predict.
Florida moreso than Ohio. Still I'm quietly confident Obama will win Ohio by at least 1/1.5 percentage points.
I think he'll get Iowa, NM, Colorado, Nevada, Ohio and yes OK maybe Virginia - but I'm REALLY hoping he gets Florida. North Carolina would be AMAZING
right, what's the best channel to watch? I'm sure there'll be FLICKING but I want to make sure I have access to the best anchor team.
I only trust CNN with this election night, MSNBC is soooo far left and Fox News is obviously so far to the right.
