Eurovision 2019: Semi Final Two - Predict The Qualifiers

[VoR]

Initially this looked like the weaker Semi of the two, but I think it's maybe the more interesting, in terms of how unpredictable the qualifiers are. You've got a batch of big fan favourites (Malta, Netherlands, Norway, Switzerland), most of the countries that almost always qualify on name alone (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Romania, Russia, Sweden) and virtually nothing that can be completely discounted from getting over the line. (I'd say Croatia is the most obvious dead duck, but crazy novelty staging could potentially save it).

Also, the current top four in the betting to win the whole contest are all in this semi (Netherlands, Russia, Switzerland, Swede ).

Anyway, predict your ten please.



First Half

Armenia: Srbuk - Walking Out
Austria: Pænda - Limits
Denmark: Leonora - Love Is Forever
Ireland: Sarah McTernan - 22
Latvia: Carousel - That Night
Moldova: Anna Odobescu - Stay
Romania: Ester Peony - On A Sunday
Sweden: John Lundvik - Too Late For Love
Switzerland: Luca Hänni - She Got Me

Second Half

Albania: Jonida Maliqi - Ktheju tokës
Azerbaijan: Chingiz - Truth
Croatia: Roko - The Dream
Lithuania: Jurij Veklenko - Run With The Lions
Malta: Michela - Chameleon
Netherlands: Duncan Laurence - Arcade
North Macedonia: Tamara Todevska - Proud
Norway: KEiiNO - Spirit In The Sky
Russia: Sergay Lazarev - Scream

 

[Cathy de Bourgh]

I think this semi's got an interesting dynamic - there's seven songs that I think it'd be a massive shock to see them go out based on hype/friendly voters and what could feasibly be a total dogfight between 8th and 14th.

Safe Seven

Netherlands
Switzerland
Sweden
Russia
Azerbaijan
Malta
Armenia

Borderline IN

Albania
Romania
Norway

Borderline OUT

Denmark
North Macedonia
Lithuania
Austria

Struggling

Moldova
Ireland
Latvia
Croatia

 

[Kala]

I'm pretty sure Norway are OUT. It has fan flop written all over it. I agree with the 'safe seven' and would add Lithuania and Denmark as qualifiers, Lithuania because Lithuania and Denmark I think has jury appeal. However the last one is more difficult. North Macedonia have probably the strongest song, and I would LOVE them to make it, but they don't have the diaspora that Romania or Albania have. Romania only just missed out last time, and this year their song is better, so I'd go for them to inch over the line.

 

[VoR]

I'm not putting Malta 100% safe until I'm sure she can perform it.

Safe

Netherlands
Switzerland
Sweden
Russia
Azerbaijan

Very Likely

Armenia
Malta

Borderline IN

Denmark
Lithuania
North Macedonia

Borderline OUT

Norway (Same reason as Kala, it's jury poison)
Romania
Albania
Austria

Struggling

Moldova
Ireland
Latvia
Croatia

 

[VoR]

Running order



1. Armenia
2. Ireland
3. Moldova
4. Switzerland
5. Latvia
6. Romania
7. Denmark
8. Sweden
9. Austria
10. Croatia
11. Malta
12. Lithuania
13. Russia
14. Albania
15. Norway
16. The Netherlands
17. North Macedonia
18. Azerbaijan

 

[VoR]

Sarah responds to Ireland being buried in second...

 

[dUb]

Oh DEAR!

Is 2nd place as much of a death knell in a semi as in the final?

 

[VoR]

Nah not really. But it's still a weak draw.

 

[Kala]

Yeah, that's the second year in a row that they've shoved no-hopers into second. You can tell Christer is involved in the draw. Another plum draw for Sweden I see. Malta coming after that monstrosity is good for them.

 

[Zu]

that monstrosity

 

[Kala]

Not finalised but at the moment, I think:

1. Armenia
4. Switzerland
6. Romania
7. Denmark
8. Sweden
11. Malta
13. Russia
15. Norway
16. The Netherlands
18. Azerbaijan

 

[VoR]

I'll be gutted for poor North Macedonia if they fail AGAIN, but shoving her out between The Netherlands and Azerbaijan is a hard slot.

 

[lolly]

Yeah, that's the second year in a row that they've shoved no-hopers into second. You can tell Christer is involved in the draw. Another plum draw for Sweden I see. Malta coming after that monstrosity is good for them.

Why is 8th a good position? Is it before or after a break? I'm not sure which is usually preferable.

 

[Kala]

Why is 8th a good position? Is it before or after a break? I'm not sure which is usually preferable.

Pretty much as late as possible and before a rather forgettable song.

 

[VoR]

Why is 8th a good position? Is it before or after a break? I'm not sure which is usually preferable.

It was already (randomly) drawn in the first half, so 9th is as late as it could possibly have gone. It's also surrounded by weak, low-impact entries that will help it to stand out by comparison.

That said, I think they would have qualified from anywhere so it's kind of moot.

 

[Kala]

Do we know for sure if Christer is involved in the running order? He really shouldn't be out of conflict of interest. But it wouldn't surprise me.

 

[Zu]

I bet she almost certainly IS

 

[D5K]

Is it before or after a break? I'm not sure which is usually preferable.

After a break is awful with the televote, as half the audience has gone off to do something during the break and will probably only drift back during your song.