Eurovision 2021 Semi One - Predict the Qualifiers

SELECT TEN


  • Total voters
    17

VoR

Take it or leave it
Joined
Feb 3, 2004
Messages
127,415
Location
The Cinema
Now that Belarus is officially gone we can finally discuss the Semi of Death

First Half
Australia
Ireland
Lithuania
North Macedonia
Russia
Slovenia
Sweden

Second Half
Azerbaijan
Belgium
Croatia
Cyprus
Israel
Malta
Norway
Romania
Ukraine

 
What a twelve-car pileup of hot female fronted bangers! Surely at least one is going to get lost in the shuffle. I fear for Australia (well, not really as she is quite the irritant) and Croatia.

Safe
Malta
Sweden
Cyprus
Lithuania

Likely
Russia
Azerbaijan

On the Bubble
Belgium
Norway
Israel
Croatia

---

Ukraine (I just don't know if it'll be accessible enough, and I can totally see it being a jury murder)
Romania
Ireland (Sorry Lesley luv)
Australia
North Macedonia
Slovenia
 
Safe
Malta
Lithuania
Sweden
Cyprus

Likely IN
Norway
Azerbaijan (It’s nowhere near the best uptempo song of the semi and she doesn’t seem to be the most convincing live performer)
Russia

Borderline IN
Belgium (This could get a huge jury vote and they’re known around Europe so I can’t see it flopping massively on the televote either)
Romania
Ireland (It is a decent song and they have the Heroes stage director, there’s definitely a place in the final for this)

Borderline OUT
Croatia (It‘s going to get lost for obvious reasons)
Ukraine (It was always a borderline qualifier and they’ve just lost twenty or so points from Belarus)
Slovenia (If the juries like it enough it could have a chance)
Israel (Same as Croatia)
Australia

Chanceless
North Macedonia
 
I have:
Lithuania
Sweden
Azerbaijan
Cyprus
Malta
Norway

as the surefire qualifiers, and after that it gets a bit MERKY and will really rely on staging & performance. I'd be SHOCKED if Ukraine don't qualify, so they are my next most likely.
I feel like Croatia are going to throw a lot at their performance, but it is likely to get lost in the shuffle. Belgium are known for being so hit and miss with their staging I really have no idea how they will do this year. My issue with Russia is - will anybody actually want to vote for it? :D

I went with Israel as my final qualifier, even though the song is SHIT she's a good performer :D
 
Good god this semi is VICIOUS

I actually do think North Macedonia could be a shock qualifier though. It stands out amid all the female bangers and he's an opera singer, so if he's got the vox it's got a really obvious in with the juries.
 
The safe set
Malta
Cyprus
Sweden
Lithuania

Likely
Norway (he's a man surrounded by a lot of women in this semi)
Russia (they're Russia, and the song isn't a disaster of 2018 levels)
Romania

If they get the staging right
Belgium (but that's a big IF - as a song I do think it's through)

Borderline IN
Azerbaijan (far from being one of the strongest female bops of the semi - probably a more likely qualifier than this but I'm rooting against it personally)
Ireland (based more on HOPE, and I do think it's something the juries will take to)
-
Borderline OUT
Croatia (I don't think it's quite instant enough compared to stuff like Cyprus and Malta, but would love to see this through)
Ukraine (them having a 100% streak is the only thing in their favour IMO - it was borderline already but I think they'll really struggle without Belarus)

Don't see it
Australia (would need really strong jury backing)
Israel

Only if the juries are off their tits
Slovenia
North Macedonia
 
What I'd like
Azerbaijan
Belgium
Croatia
Cyprus
Ireland
Lithuania
Malta
Sweden
Ukraine

Predicted
Azerbaijan
Belgium
Croatia
Cyprus
Lithuania
Malta
Norway
Russia
Sweden
Ukraine


I'd say safe are: Malta, Sweden, Russia, Lithuania (with only Russia among them being a travesty)
Likely: Azerbaijan, Belgium, Norway
Bit dodge: Ukraine, Croatia, Cyprus
Nice surprise if it happened: Israel, Ireland, Australia
No chance: North Macedonia, Slovenia
 
Only obvious safes here are Lithuania, Sweden and Malta. Cyprus too but I am scared of at least one gay upset. Norway surely safe as well, although I wouldn't want to follow Cyprus. But I think he's pretty safe.

Everything else is all maybes but I'd plump for:

Romania - I know it's not popular but I think this is a strong entry and they've got a decent slot.

Belgium - Song's MUCH better than last year, it sounds different to most other entries being a decent midtempo ballad and it's their best since they last qualified.

Azerbaijan and Ukraine simply have good slots, excellent track records and both sending mad bangers that scream mess especially Mata Hari, but I think they've got enough to pull through.

Russia probably will let's face it, but I've rather blindly swapped them out for Israel because Eden seems capable of elevating anything, and the song's not as awful as people make out. They couldn't have asked for a better slot, near the end and being sandwiched between two ballady type songs. I'm aware this is pure optimism and I'm not sure I REALLY believe or even want it, but it's possible.

Russia has the potential to repel a lot of voters though, no idea on the jury.
 
But I wouldn't be shocked at ANYTHING here qualifying. Even Macedonia and Slovenia might sneak in with the jury.

Croatia is probably as likely as Israel but I'd prefer the latter.

Only Australia seems totally screwed at the moment and even they might get saved by staging/being Australia
 

Users who are viewing this thread

Back
Top Bottom