Eurovision 2021: The Odds

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Oh NOW people are concerned about countries hosting for human rights reasons, I see :tongueout:
Oh wait you mean Israel I think?! :D (I had briefly forgotten they ever hosted :disco:)

But yeah that wasn’t great but then Israel were hardly bulldozing Palestinian homes to build a shiny new arena on the Gaza Strip, unlike Azerbaijan. Also they liked the gays, and they don’t interrogate people that vote for enemy countries.

(Obviously I am in no way condoning the actions of the Israeli government, Netanyahu and co are cunts on the whole)
 
Azerbaijan are MUCH worse on human rights than Israel. Palestinians aren't at threat of being lynched just going out anywhere in public in the way Armenians are in Azerbaijan!
 
Interesting that Switzerland seem to be (just) holding off Malta for now - and much as I love Je me casse, i 100% concede that the Maltese delegation aren't above a little artificial manipulation.

I guess unless there's a major revamp, we really are going in with the Swiss as the favourites. Wild.
 
With the ‘favourite’ at odds of 4.5 (22% implied probability of winning) this feels like the most open field in a while. Is this true?
 
Well in 2017 Salvador certainly didn't emerge as the runaway victor he became until very late in the game, but if memory serves the odds basically suggested that Italy were going to walk it that year.

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I hope that the Swiss entry being favourite at the moment is akin to France in 2011 being the runaway favourite before the contest. We just can’t have another male ballad win two years in a row, can we? :(
 
It's not really *that* weird that Switzerland are first and Bulgaria are so high. They're both sending the same acts as last year with similar sounding songs, both of which were favourites for obvious reasons. It's also the fact both have had really good recent results.

For the same reason there's no way San Marino would be outside the top 10 in the odds if they had a better track record, and I doubt Italy would be so high if it wasn't for the fact they happen to be Italy.
 
But also the field feels wide open this year and I suspect it'll change rapidly in rehearsals week. Even with the favourites at the moment they're not exactly super short odds, I feel like the top 2 or 3 are usually shorter but maybe I'm remembering wrong

Oh god I fear a 2011 and something DREADFUL winning by default/scamming

Which of course means, BRING THAT TROPHY HOME, SAM TINA :disco:
 
I'm sticking by Sweden snatching it or an overdue rock entry (Italy).
 
Even if they are not my favourite songs, Sweden (a POSSIBLY queer black immigrant) or Malta (plus-sized former JESC winner from the country that wants it the most) would both be properly iconic Eurovision winners to add the pile, as would Italy as a left-leaning COLLECTIVE.

I do of course wish MAHMOOD had already won with Tusse's narrative, but OH WELL BYGONES! :eyes:

It kind of feels like history is going to write Daði as the winner-that-never-was of 2020 ANYWAY.
 
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I'm sticking by Sweden snatching it or an overdue rock entry (Italy).

I'd rather Finland out of the rock entries, but I don't think either are good enough. But then it's THAT sort of year...

I always imagine rock entries have to have something at least a little gimmicky to do well, and certainly to win. Both of these feel a bit too much like standard entries of their own genre. Can't see them being memorable, and if Finland qualify they might cancel each other out.
 
Yeah, I'm really not seeing Italy or Finland as potential winners, though I'm sure both will do OK.
 
Isn't Hard Rock Hallelujah basically the only rock winner we've had? Maybe Riva and Waterloo at a stretch.
 
Yeah, I'm really not seeing Italy or Finland as potential winners, though I'm sure both will do OK.
Finland is just DIFFERENT, and feels quite refreshing in a year where a lot of the songs fall broadly into a limited number of categories (Ladybanger, angsty ballad, earnest men, Portugal). It feels like a winner so I'm sticking with it, not that there aren't others I'd happily see having the Venus Rosewater Dish presented to them by Princess Alexandra of Kent.
 
Finland is just DIFFERENT, and feels quite refreshing in a year where a lot of the songs fall broadly into a limited number of categories (Ladybanger, angsty ballad, earnest men, Portugal). It feels like a winner so I'm sticking with it, not that there aren't others I'd happily see having the Venus Rosewater Dish presented to them by Princess Alexandra of Kent.
I'm shocked a rubbish Linkin Park copy is considered REFRESHING in any year really :eyes:
 
Here are the latest implied probabilities of winning based on Betfair odds:

Switzerland - 19.4%
Malta - 19.0%
France - 8.7%
Italy - 8.0%
Bulgaria - 7.7%

Sweden - 6.5%
Lithuania - 5.1%
Iceland - 4.1%
Cyprus - 2.3%
Norway - 2.2%

Finland - 2.1%
Russia - 1.7%
San Marino - 1.6%
Moldova - 1.5%
Greece - 1.5%

Romania - 1.3%
Belgium - 0.7%
Azerbaijan - 0.6%
Ukraine - 0.4%
United Kingdom - 0.4%

Poland - 0.4%
Croatia - 0.4%
Czech Republic - 0.4%
Australia - 0.3%
The Netherlands - 0.3%

Estonia - 0.3%
Austria - 0.2%
Spain - 0.2%
Israel - 0.2%
Albania - 0.2%

Ireland - 0.2%
Denmark - 0.2%
Portugal - 0.2%
North Macedonia - 0.2%
Serbia - 0.1%

Germany - 0.1%
Belarus - 0.1%
Latvia - 0.1%
Georgia - 0.1%
Slovenia - 0.1%
 
There’s some new qualification odds out


For the first semi it has Malta, Sweden, Cyprus, Lithuania, Azerbaijan, Ukraine, Romania, Russia, Norway and Croatia as qualifiers.

And for the second semi there’s Switzerland, Bulgaria, Iceland, Greece, Finland, Moldova, San Marino, Serbia, Albania and Austria tipped to go through.
 

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