Post your 2020 Election PREDICTIONS

Soldi said:
I have a feeling that if Trump was to win Pennsylvania, then it probably means he’s also won the likes of Ohio, Florida, NC, Georgia etc..

A bit like if Biden manages to pull of Texas, he’d surely also win most if not all other swing states.
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Trump winning Pennsylvania increases his chances of winning Ohio significantly due to the similarities these two states share, and to a lesser extent though NC and Georgia. Florida is Florida *shrugs*
 
I've thought about it quite a lot, and here's my prediction...

jeb.jpg
 
considering Biden's momentum has seemed really strong in Pennsylvania, I really don't see some "alternative scenario" where he wins elsewhere so doesn't need it coming to fruition. sounds like fanfic. If he doesn't take PA, a lot of the other likely/possible swing states will also surely stay red. that's the scenario I'm most concerned about - a trend emerging as the votes come in across these states that have seemed viable for Biden.

in other words, I do think it's must-win for him.
 
Jark said:
considering Biden's momentum has seemed really strong in Pennsylvania, I really don't see some "alternative scenario" where he wins elsewhere so doesn't need it coming to fruition. sounds like fanfic. If he doesn't take PA, a lot of the other likely/possible swing states will also surely stay red. that's the scenario I'm most concerned about - a trend emerging as the votes come in across these states that have seemed viable for Biden.

in other words, I do think it's must-win for him.
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I tend to agree actually. If you look at 2016, there was very much a national trend of apathy to Clinton. Each state has its own quirks and demographics, but ultimately the direction of travel will be broadly similar. If Biden underperforms in one rust belt state, he’ll be on dangerous ground in all of them.

That combo of blue collar workers and cops is really concerning me. Biden has offered very little to either demographic.
 
Jark said:
considering Biden's momentum has seemed really strong in Pennsylvania, I really don't see some "alternative scenario" where he wins elsewhere so doesn't need it coming to fruition. sounds like fanfic. If he doesn't take PA, a lot of the other likely/possible swing states will also surely stay red. that's the scenario I'm most concerned about - a trend emerging as the votes come in across these states that have seemed viable for Biden.

in other words, I do think it's must-win for him.
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I think that the southern path is definitely possible even if Biden loses Pennsylvania. On 538 today, they basically said trump needs to win Pennsylvania, Georgia, Florida, North Carolina, and Texas. Even with Pennsylvania, those southern states could make all the difference.
 
I think Biden will either

Lose the entire rust belt but sweep the southern swing states (most likely)

Sweep the rust belt but lose the south (can’t really see it)

or sweep both. Or lose both.
 
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VoR said:
I think Biden will either

Lose the entire rust belt but sweep the southern swing states (most likely)

Sweep the rust belt but lose the south (can’t really see it)

or sweep both. Or lose both.
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Yes but I wouldn’t include Iowa in the rust belt or Florida in the south. They’re both just too unique.

If Trump sweeps both, honestly this country can just go fuck itself.
 
I was actually looking forward to this election night but now it’s looking more likely that even if Biden wins it’s going to be fairly close. All it takes is for a couple of swing states to be within a couple of % points and Trump will reject the result. And his rhetoric will have all the nutjobs ready to declare Martial law to protect their imperial leader

it may not be as fun as I had hoped

at this point the only decent scenario is if Biden wins by a good 30 or 40 points, which is still possible. Even better if he takes the senate. That would be AMAZE.
 
Unfortunately, there is no chance he wins by 30 or 40 points. 15 points is the absolute best case scenario.
 
My UPDATED PREDICTION. I have a bit more hope now for some ODD reason *cue an 1984 style Republican landslide*

Lk0yP
 
Closing in TWO HOURS for any last minute predictions.
 
If I was a betting girl I would probably back Trump not that I want him to win, but I think he will. I think they both should be enjoying retirement personally and I don’t care if that makes me sound ageist.
 
I heard that @Tisch is currently stumbling around Madeira chanting FOUR MORE YEARS
 
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