The main reason Johnson got the support of the party in 2019 is because he is totally pig-headed, has complete tunnel vision and will not give an inch. Those were the qualities needed to force Brexit through. Those were not, however, the qualities required to actually lead the nation. As such, it will be very hard to get him to agree to go unless it's made to look like he is leaving because he has achieved something.
He'll want to be "out" of the pandemic and want to take the credit for the vaccine roll-out, something he is already doing despite having done much to impede it with his slow-footedness and reluctance to spend money on something as trivial to him as reducing the number of dead proles. So I think we're looking at late March at the earliest. I'll say...ooh...24th March 2022. That will piss off the party who won't be happy with a leadership void going into local elections but he doesn't give a shit about that.
I would be much happier if there was a further scandal that finished him in absolute disgrace but, let's be reasonable - he's an arrogant, stubborn man who genuinely believes he knows best despite the overwhelming amount of evidence to the contrary.
