Scottish politics thread (including 2021 Holyrood elections)

COB

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We don't seem to have a general thread for Scottish politics, and next year is going to be quite big with Scottish Parliament elections and potentially announcements about a future independence referendum so I decided to make one :scotland:
 

COB

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The SNP have just had their conference and internal elections, and there's been some concern as their new women's and equalities conveners are both from the transphobic wing of the party. I really think that this happening so soon before the election next May is really going to force the issue to become even bigger than it already is, and could risk splitting the party.

It's heartening that not everyone in the SNP is on the same page as the bigots - I particularly liked this tweet thread from Aberdeen North MP Kirsty Blackman:
 

COB

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In personal news, I applied to join the Scottish Greens today :o
 

win_the_game

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I think it’s a done deal that the SNP will win, possibly even with a majority.

Sick of hearing about Scottish independence quite frankly. I wish they’d just get on with sorting out the NHS and education system.
 
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ZenGiraffe

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Sick of hearing about Scottish independence quite frankly. I wish they’d just get on with sorting out the NHS and education system.
But we don't have all the levers of power? Independence gives Scotland more routes to fix those things. Scotland can't borrow, so if Westminster tighten the budget, then Holyrood can't just make money appear from nowhere. I think the financial argument FOR independence is going to get quite strong as we recover from Covid and the schemes and projects that Scotland want to do can't be funded because of a skinflint Rishi Sunak.
 

octophone

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The SNP have just had their conference and internal elections, and there's been some concern as their new women's and equalities conveners are both from the transphobic wing of the party. I really think that this happening so soon before the election next May is really going to force the issue to become even bigger than it already is, and could risk splitting the party.

It's heartening that not everyone in the SNP is on the same page as the bigots - I particularly liked this tweet thread from Aberdeen North MP Kirsty Blackman:

This is what a lot of us were afraid of.

Joanna Cherry is the ringleader here and she's essentially Scotland's Farage - he believes she has identified the prejudice behind which enough people will unite so as to get her political wish. She believes no-one will go back to Labour and she's probably right. She has her eye on the leadership. If she gets her wish - a new Indyref with herself as leader and trans people are the enemy, I'll have to leave the country for my own safety. It's that serious.
 
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Soldi

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Scottish moopers, would you still vote YES in indyref2 if the U.K. had some sort of Labour/left-wing government?
 

ZenGiraffe

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Scottish moopers, would you still vote YES in indyref2 if the U.K. had some sort of Labour/left-wing government?
Yes.

The fundamental reforms that would need to be undertaken to prevent Scotland being in exactly the same place again would be too high a bar for the commons to actually get legislation passed. I wouldn't settle for anything less than a federal UK within the European Union with a proportional voting system. That isn't going to happen any time soon, and quite probably not within my lifetime.

In 2014, when it looked like Ed Miliband would be in coalition, that didn't look nearly as unrealistic, hence why I voted No last time. I won't be making that mistake again.
 

SDF

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I don’t think I could continue to vote snp as a lgbt person and I find it odd that the leadership haven’t been more firm on this.

I would however still be pro independence, so it would be the greens for me.
 

octophone

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I'm curious. I don't know the ins and outs of it, but on gender recognition, I always thought it was a minority but loud view within the SNP opposed to it. How do you think the SNP compare to other parties here?

It's growing increasingly mainstream within the party, as evidenced by the new appointments.

It is to the SNP what antisemitism is to the Labour party. Whilst not a majority problem, the leadership's refusal to deal with it properly is causing it to grow and metastasise.
 

Ag

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As an English man (yuck, I should kill myself), who was desperately against independence last time (because I love Scotland), I fully support Scottish independence now. GOOD LUCK EVERYONE!
 
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Penelope

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God this scares me like not much else right now. Rona's if anything made independence look even more dangerous a prospect (for Scotland and rUK), and yet it's been taken as more of a sign that it's a good idea. If a referendum happens I don't feel confident at all No would win.
 

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As an English man (yuck, I should kill myself), who was desperately against independence last time (because I love Scotland), I fully support Scottish independence now. GOOD LUCK EVERYONE!
It'd be a disaster for the left winning a general election in the UK any time soon!
 

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It'd be a disaster for the left winning a general election in the UK any time soon!
I think I know the answer, but why? And why specifically the SNP, when they already sit opposed to most Westminster politics (from my admittedly limited knowledge)?
 

ZenGiraffe

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I think I know the answer, but why? And why specifically the SNP, when they already sit opposed to most Westminster politics (from my admittedly limited knowledge)?
Labour will likely need a confidence and supply arrangement with the SNP to govern any time soon.
 

ZenGiraffe

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God this scares me like not much else right now. Rona's if anything made independence look even more dangerous a prospect (for Scotland and rUK), and yet it's been taken as more of a sign that it's a good idea. If a referendum happens I don't feel confident at all No would win.
I disagree, from a Scottish perspective anyway. Scotland has clearly made decisions based on the limitations imposed by Westminster. Furlough is the biggest one I can think of off the top of my head. The Scottish Government had to plead for it to be extended, and at the end of the day it sill wasn't until London and the South East needed it that it happened.
 

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Yeah we're fucked in England/ Wales if Scotland goes, without a Blair sized win. However I think the Scottish right to independence is pretty important if there's a majority in favour. Also I'm relishing watching the decline of the UK.
 
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ZenGiraffe

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It is to the SNP what antisemitism is to the Labour party.
That is a good way of getting it to a concise sentiment. I suppose the difference is that people still like Nicola and want independence, so the pressure within the party to sort it out is much smaller than what Corbyn had to go through.
 

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I think I know the answer, but why? And why specifically the SNP, when they already sit opposed to most Westminster politics (from my admittedly limited knowledge)?
Nominally yes, but in practice if it was a hung parliament and they held the balance of power, they'd back a left government (as very nearly happened in 2017, if the Tories had just lost a couple more seats). Taking 60 typically left seats off the total number of UK seats just makes it much easier for the Tories to win each time, basically.
 

COB

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It'd be a disaster for the left winning a general election in the UK any time soon!
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Too bad!
 

ZenGiraffe

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The NHS has spent the last five years working on reform at the whim of the Scottish Government. The SNP had the bright idea of reducing the number of health boards to five before deciding not to at the last minute after they had made Boards develop full blown merger plans. This was round about the time Tayside was hitting the headlines and possibly a way to pave over that disaster (which happened to be where the previous Cabinet Secretary for Health’s constituency was based :eyes:) They finally decided that it wouldn’t sort out issues with funding, staffing levels or health and social care integration - which NHS staff and leaders said all along.

They then decided instead to develop a new network of specialist primary care and trauma centres across the country which seemed to fall out of favour the minute the first ones were launched.

Then they launched the National Transformation Fund to support projects delivering local, regional and national structural change (like getting health boards to use the same systems). Money was committed and projects half delivered before the Scottish Government hollowed out the money, cancelled loads of work midway and decided to focus on Jeane Freeman’s big ticket priorities around waiting times.

In summary years and years of work with very little to show for it. But it’s not the Scottish Government’s fault of course!
I'll have to defer to you for the detail on this, since it really isn't my area at all. However, I am not sure that it makes sense to wed independence entirely with the SNP. Other parties would form the government in an independent Scotland. Why would remaining in the UK vs. leaving it help solve these issues?
 

ZenGiraffe

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Nominally yes, but in practice if it was a hung parliament and they held the balance of power, they'd back a left government (as very nearly happened in 2017, if the Tories had just lost a couple more seats). Taking 60 typically left seats off the total number of UK seats just makes it much easier for the Tories to win each time, basically.
Why should Scotland suffer because England shits the bed in so many general elections?
 

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I disagree, from a Scottish perspective anyway. Scotland has clearly made decisions based on the limitations imposed by Westminster. Furlough is the biggest one I can think of off the top of my head. The Scottish Government had to plead for it to be extended, and at the end of the day it sill wasn't until London and the South East needed it that it happened.
Budget-wise, Scotland gets a shitload more support in terms of the funding for stuff like furlough through being part of the UK/a country with an independent central bank than it would do if it were independent.

The currency question is more important than ever now - if Scotland decides it's going to go for joining the EU (and ergo joining the euro), that de facto means Scotland wouldn't be able to do big deficit spending or quantitative easing in the way the UK's been able to do in this crisis. Scotland wouldn't have control over its own destiny any more so than it does now, but it'd have less money to support it through a crisis.
 

ZenGiraffe

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Budget-wise, Scotland gets a shitload more support in terms of the funding for stuff like furlough through being part of the UK/a country with an independent central bank than it would do if it were independent.
Except tons of European countries have financial schemes similar or more generous than the UKs.

The currency question is more important than ever now - if Scotland decides it's going to go for joining the EU (and ergo joining the euro), that de facto means Scotland wouldn't be able to do big deficit spending or quantitative easing in the way the UK's been able to do in this crisis.
I've never been fully convinced by why the Euro is that bad, but we don't even need to actually join it if it didn't suit us. The commitment can be deferred easily enough. And EU funding would be available to us again, so there would still be some resources flowing in our direction.

Scotland wouldn't have control over its own destiny any more so than it does now, but it'd have less money to support it through a crisis.
This is a weird argument. Quite obviously we would have more powers in an independent Scotland. Including the power to borrow, and it is hardly the only thing that matters. Indeed, given the trainwreck of Brexit, and a lopsided recovery from Covid looming, I think the economic argument for staying in the UK is at the weakest it will ever be, and plenty of people will give it less priority now than they did in 2014.
 

ZenGiraffe

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Twitter thread of the latest Scottish Polling. Yes enjoying a substantial lead, the SNP on course to walk it.

The Labour and Conservative figures are interesting. Despite being more trusted on every issue, Labour will likely do worse than the Torys.
 

win_the_game

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We’re still stuck in Indy v Union mode. The SNP have hoovered up the pro-independence voters and the Conservatives have gained the pro-Union voters since 2014.

Scottish Labour’s muddled policy on independence has really cost the party. We really need to offer something substantive e.g. federalism if the party is to regain any credibility again.

A decent leader would help as well but the talent pool is pretty weak. I wouldn’t be surprised if someone like Jackie Baillie gets elected when Richard Leonard is finally dumped.
 

ZenGiraffe

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Yeah, I think Labour will get worse before they get better. If anything, they could stand to benefit from Independence as the SNP starts shedding members without a clear purpose. Wasn't there a membership poll that showed Labour supporters not that fussed about the union not that long ago?

I am surprised the Greens aren't making bigger progress given how important the climate debate has become. Especially as the list means it wouldn't be a wasted vote.
 

SDF

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Oh dear I was having a look at Johann Lamonts wiki and can see the wee Ned is a TERF too
 

ZenGiraffe

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Oh dear I was having a look at Johann Lamonts wiki and can see the wee Ned is a TERF too
Thank god she isn't relevant and never will be again.

However, I'm surprised the SNP are the only ones having to deal with the TERFs publically though. I imagine the only party safe from them are the Greens.
 
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Tetris-Rock

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This is what a lot of us were afraid of.

Joanna Cherry is the ringleader here and she's essentially Scotland's Farage - he believes she has identified the prejudice behind which enough people will unite so as to get her political wish. She believes no-one will go back to Labour and she's probably right. She has her eye on the leadership. If she gets her wish - a new Indyref with herself as leader and trans people are the enemy, I'll have to leave the country for my own safety. It's that serious.

Cherry is a self-important narcissist and utterly charisma-free. Scottish Independence on 55+% and the SNP set for a landslide victory in the elections - and she has her eye on Nicola’s job?! She doesn’t care about anything but her own career.
 

Tetris-Rock

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It'd be a disaster for the left winning a general election in the UK any time soon!

Speaking as someone who LIVES SOUTH OF THE BORDER, I literally DO NOT GIVE A FUCK.

I am sick of being told that Scotland needs to stick around for that reason. Living down in London has only confirmed that no-one here knows anything about Scottish politics so why should Scots give a fuck about you, quite honestly?
 

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