Tokyo 2020 - Day 3 (Mon 26 July)

dmlaw

Democracy doesn't work
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FiveThirtyEight crunched the numbers in 2016, but I don’t agree with their conclusions:


They ascribe the home advantage almost entirely to an increased number of competitors.
I’m fairly sure that’s not the reason. How often does an athlete for the hosts who wouldn’t have otherwise qualified go on to win a medal? I bet it isn’t very often.
 

Diddy

Rice Queen
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I’m fairly sure that’s not the reason. How often does an athlete for the hosts who wouldn’t have otherwise qualified go on to win a medal? I bet it isn’t very often.

well they do mention that specifically, they concede that but also the elite individual athletes are more likely to enter more events - I guess there are some they might not have fielded anyone but since they have a freebie, their all-star can give it a whack.

it’s not a very in-depth analysis, they basically stop once they’ve found evidence that more athletes is the key. I don’t think that’s not part of it, but there are a lot more variables at work, and I’m not sure just the total medals each year is a big enough data set
 

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