Eurovision 2022: Semi-Final 2 Predictions

DIREKT TIL FINAL…

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general election uk GIF by BBC
 
Strangely I find this easier, albeit poorer, than S1
 
Oh I’ve just voted and apparently we’re the only two who think so. :D
 
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Nobody thinks Georgia will qualify?!
 
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To think we could end up with shit like Australia and Azerbaijan in the finals as opposed to Serbia and Romania :(

I imagine Sweden will win this in a landslide.
 
I mean let's be honest, this semi is difficult enough and perfectly tailored for delivering shocks as it is without going crazy and predicting the one that's winning the jury vote to be a non-qualifier.

(as it goes I think Cyprus and Serbia are big potentials to go out, and I think San Marino are in danger too which would be a shock to some if it happened)
 
I’d be on board with Achille qualifying if he had sent this

 
I'm not sure the vote's there for two rock tracks to get through the semi, particularly also because the difference between Jezebel and Stripper isn't quite as pointed as the one between Dark Side and Zitti e buoni was last year that meant they found two natural different big voting constituencies. And San Marino is the exact type of country likely to struggle with the conditions of SF2 (more countries going for 10 places, and more countries voting, meaning the leg up from natural voting allies is much more needed, which San Marino doesn't really have), and Italy are voting in the other semi. It's got a taller order getting out than people think.
 
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I think Australia are pretty doomed. They already have a really firm record of getting diabolical televotes in the single figures when they aren't bringing something unique and elevated, and they can't really depend on the juries to make up sufficiently for that as much as before, because at least two other entries in the semi are bringing the exact same thing to the table.
 
San Marino are surely one of the least likely qualifiers here along with North Macedonia (and for me, Israel).

Surprised to see Finland as the one that everyone has voted for so far, I think it's pretty locked in as it's very on-brand for Finland which as last year showed, seems to go down well, but I thought it was seen a bit on the edge.
 
Israel depends a lot on whether the juries decide to napalm it or not, but I think being one of the few uptempos serves it really well - and he can sing it too, which helps a lot.
 
Confirmed running order

1. Finland
2. Israel
3. Serbia
4. Azerbaijan
5. Georgia
6. Malta
7. San Marino
8. Australia
9. Cyprus
10. Ireland
11. North Macedonia
12. Estonia
13. Romania
14. Poland
15. Montenegro
16. Belgium
17. Sweden
18. Czech Republic
 
Is the ad break probably after slot 12? I swear to god if we lose both Israel and Romania
 
The Czech Republic really lined up to be the NEW TRIANA PARK with that final slot :disco: (potentially right down to finishing last with a disaster vocal)

 
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This semi is an absolute nightmare from a predictions standpoint.

Safe
Sweden
Poland
Finland

Likely
Malta
Estonia
San Marino
Montenegro

Borderline
Serbia
Romania
Ireland

----

Czech Republic
Cyprus
Belgium
Azerbaijan

Unlikely
Georgia
Israel
North Macedonia
Australia
 
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Poor Serbia, isn‘t #3 supposed to be the death slot in the semi-finals or something? :D:(
Australia performing after Azerbaijan is probably an advantage for them, not to mention Georgia aside, Azerbaijan don’t really have any other reliable votes coming through.

Safe
Finland
Estonia
Poland
Sweden

Likely in
Australia
Cyprus

Borderline in
Serbia (I’m worried but hopefully a decent televote will push her over the line)
Romania (This does STAND OUT in the recap actually :disco:)
Montenegro (Straight after Poland is a bit HARSH :D)
Azerbaijan

Borderline out
Czech Republic (Bit worried for this one too. Feels a bit like Denmark last year, upbeat song but a borderline qualified shoved on at the end and ultimately finishes 11th. From what I’ve seen she’s had ‘sound problems’ during all her live performances so far too :eyes:)
Malta
Ireland :(

Unlikely
Belgium
San Marino

Chanceless
Israel
Georgia
North Macedonia
 
On reflection I'm putting Ireland into my ten and demoting Cyprus. That's Rich really stands out in this lineup and I'm hoping for a really fun stage show.
 
Also I’ve decided this semi is MUCH better than the first one. The second half is ALMOST strong!
 
Nobody is talking about the amazing achievement of Georgia competing in BOTH the Eurovision and the American Song Contest at the same time :o
 
I don't know why everyone seems to think Belgium is doomed. It couldn't be a more blatant qualifier to my eyes - jury bait, big vocalist, takes a different road to most of the other male jury bait attempts in the semi, right near the end, easy potential for a memorable stage show.

I'm a little annoyed the semi betting markets aren't open yet, because the entire fandom seems convinced it's an also ran and it feels like there's easy money to be made there.
 
Subject to change as well

Sure qualifiers
Finland
Malta
San Marino
Estonia (winner vibes again)
Poland
Sweden

Likely qualifier
Georgia
Ireland
North Macedonia
Romania
Belgium
Czech Republic

Possible non qualifiers:
Cyprus
Montenegro

Sure non qualifiers:
Australia
Azerbaijan

Major Drama Shock qualifier:
Israel

Major Drama Shock non qualifier:
Serbia
 
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