What will '30' sell first week?

Jark

Jark

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UK and also US if you like

I'm gonna say 425k UK and 650k US. If Adele can't reach that number in the UK (with what will probably be her last huge record), surely nobody ever will again...
 
they've printed 500k vinyl and at least 50-100k of those must be UK-bound. a 50k vinyl week would decimate the current record (Voyage's 30k)
 
Jark said:
they've printed 500k vinyl and at least 50-100k of those must be UK-bound. a 50k vinyl week would decimate the current record (Voyage's 30k)
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Well, for the 21st century...
 
Didn't 25 do a little under 800k? It will be interesting to see how this does in comparison to see the state of the market. Abba were untested, and Sheeran's popularity is clearly waning. There isn't any real indication that Adele’s popularity has similarly dipped, is there? Not that I think she'll sell the same as last time.

I'm going to say around 375k UK. US I have no real idea.
 
I think lolly is on the money here - it'll tell us more about the state of music sales than it will about anything else. I think it'll stream exceptionally well and physical sales will be about half of what they were last time.
 
What were Ed Sheeran's US and UK week 1 sales? It looks like he's no competition for her at this point in terms of first week sales, but his sales are probably the best benchmark at this point. Can't really compare to 21 or even 25.
 
Ed - 139k (UK), 118k (US, huge flop)
ABBA - 204k (UK), ~80k (US, projected)
 
I'm thinking 300K and 400K respectively but I'm clearly being conservative.
 
funky said:
I'm thinking 300K and 400K respectively but I'm clearly being conservative.
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With the album market in the UK contracting about 20% year on year since she last released an album I don't think you're being THAT conservative.
 
UK: 270k
US: 430k

I do think sales will remain stable and weekly over 150k on both sides of the Atlantic though until after Christmas.
 
I was thinking about this earlier when I saw Abba did over 200k.

I was thinking she would be roughly the same as them, BUT, i am thinking her streaming numbers will be big too because look at how the single is still doing on spotify etc.

I am going for 350K uk.
 
Yeah I’m around 350k. The format is just so niche these days that it would still be a huge achievement, but I can’t see much more.
 
The album is the whole top 11 and number 13 on US Apple Music, which is usually almost all rap. I think Spotify numbers are going to be massive on top of physicals
 
how are the besties predicting 400k in the US when she cleared 2.3 million in THREE days 5 years ago? :D

anything less than 750k in the US would be flopping Bionic-style.
 
To put this in perspective, album sales in the US in 2015 were 240 million. Album sales last year were 102 million. I'd say anything above 1 million opening would be a huge accomplishment, coupled with the general law of diminishing returns... If she does 600k in the US (which I think is the conservative projection from HitsDailyDouble) that would still be respectable all things considered. I think the album will have legs anyway.
 
agreed. in this economy an 800k opening is equivalent to like 2m a few years back. it would be a major result.

nobody should be expecting 30 to sell even half of what 25 did when all's said and done.
 
Where would selling 750k in the first week in the US in terms of biggest first weeks of the year?
 
lolly said:
Where would selling 750k in the first week in the US in terms of biggest first weeks of the year?
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Top selling of the year. I think Drake's was highest so far (613k) and that is obviously padded with streaming.
 
Ok, there's some perspective when we get the final figure
 
WELL...

I'm not sure exactly what it's based on, but Billboard are predicting 1.3—1.7m including 1m+ physicals

:o
 
officially predicted at 800-850k first week.



the million week really is dead! folklore opened with 846k (incl 615k pure sales) so I guess that is the benchmark to beat
 
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