2022 French Presidential Election

[lolly]

On average people do three years of studies after school + one year to get a first job.

Not sure how reliable statista is, but I checked (as 24 - 27 seemed old to me for most people not to have started working) and found this

This statistic shows the average age at which young people aged 18-30 years old got their first job in France in 2017. It appears that the majority of French young adults, 58 percent of them, got their first job when they were aged between 18 and 21 years old. However, 11 percent of those surveyed were 24 or older when they obtained their first job.

 

[Dark Carnival]

Not sure how reliable statista is, but I checked (as 24 - 27 seemed old to me for most people not to have started working) and found this

This statistic shows the average age at which young people aged 18-30 years old got their first job in France in 2017. It appears that the majority of French young adults, 58 percent of them, got their first job when they were aged between 18 and 21 years old. However, 11 percent of those surveyed were 24 or older when they obtained their first job.

I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s not higher around Paris. Either way, with 43 years of minimum contribution that’s already 61 - 64 as a minimum.

 

[Penelope]

at some point the world needs to solve the aging population problem anyway, and people living longer and being retired for longer is only going to cause younger generations to continue deciding that having children isn't worth the economic investment (perhaps this is another topic).

I don't think it's a problem as such - it's a good thing people are living longer happier lives in general! (though life expectancy has stalled/started going back a bit recently) - but I don't think this quite has it the right way round. Why would people living longer and being retired for longer cause younger generations to decide not to have kids? It's the thing that's only a problem *provided* they don't have kids - I think one of the main things it really demands is a lot more policy towards making it a lot more economically viable for people to have 2/3 kids as standard again / being open to immigration in general.

 

[VoR]

I know it’ll cause major problems for our generation, but in the long term I can’t wrap my head around it being a bad thing for our insane overpopulation to plateau and fall back.

 

[Penelope]

I know it’ll cause major problems for our generation, but in the long term I can’t wrap my head around it being a bad thing for our insane overpopulation to plateau and fall back.

Because it causes major problems for every generation that has to go through it!

(I think we can get to a place relatively soon on clean tech combined with personal carbon budgets/allowances that there isn't really much of a concept of 'over'population in terms of a few billion of us being able to sustainably live on this planet)

 

[lolly]

I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s not higher around Paris. Either way, with 43 years of minimum contribution that’s already 61 - 64 as a minimum.

I don't think 61 - 64 is unreasonable - but then I guess most Brits would say the same because our perspective is very different. But I absolutely take your point in terms of how long you have to work to get the full pension though - and also the fact that people plan their lives around what was true at the time, only then to be told the goalpost has moved. That's true here as well of course.

 

[VoR]

Maybe instead of laying off all the taxi drivers we should focus all our automation efforts on robots to carry our decrepit brexit voting generation to and from the toilet and discreetly euthanise them when they get too cranky.

 

[Penelope]

Maybe instead of laying off all the taxi drivers we should focus all our automation efforts on robots to carry our decrepit brexit voting generation to and from the toilet and discreetly euthanise them when they get too cranky.

Care, surprisingly, basically the least compatible type of job going with automation. Who could ever suspect why?

 

[ZenGiraffe]

(Customer service is also about the last place you'd be able to satisfactorily replace humans still in it at this point, given the almost universal experience of customer service cases that haven't been handled by automation so far is that they're only satisfied at the point customers feel like they've spoken to a human who could resolve their issue rather than something automated they haven't got the answer from so far.)

Well nothing is passing the Turing Test any time soon but I reckon we're not that far from the point where standard, relatively simple issues could be handled invisibly by an AI web chat.

 

[COB]

Well nothing is passing the Turing Test any time soon but I reckon we're not that far from the point where standard, relatively simple issues could be handled invisibly by an AI we chat.

This already happens in a lot of places, it's really miserable and everyone hates it though

 

[ZenGiraffe]

This already happens in a lot of places, it's really miserable and everyone hates it though

Key word INVISIBLY.

It's very much visible at the moment

 

[Penelope]

Well nothing is passing the Turing Test any time soon but I reckon we're not that far from the point where standard, relatively simple issues could be handled invisibly by an AI we chat.

The point is all the relatively simple stuff is dealt with the level most orgs have got to for customer service functions that aren't automated, like decision tree stuff. There are obviously some cases that are dealt with entirely by a customer being too dim to not notice their answer is there, but otherwise there's a reason most people need to talk to a human at some point!

 

[Penelope]

Key word INVISIBLY.

It's very much visible at the moment

In which case, you kind of *are* depending on an AI being able to pass the Turing Test, given people can largely tell when they've spoken to someone real or not (and that is increasingly becoming a/*the* metric they judge on for whether their complaint has been handled satisfactorily)

 

[Jark]

Why would people living longer and being retired for longer cause younger generations to decide not to have kids?

you only have to look to China or Korea for the answer to that.

30 years ago, a 30 year old would have parents of around ~55 who may soon need some support, and perhaps one grandparent of ~80 who they would have to consider providing for too. having two kids was perhaps economically viable, but disallowed.

in 2023, that same 30 year old has parents nearing retirement, likely two grandparents who need financial support (which will fall to their highly educated grandchildren to provide, seeing as their children were educated and entered work pre-economic super-boom period) and have plenty of years left to live, the average lifespan having grown by +10 years since 1990.

so that 30 yo is thinking: if I have two kids, or even one, in 5 years there'll be four generations of my family alive and I'll be the only earner. and of course people are not gonna want to have kids knowing that two generations above them and one below will be partially dependant, maybe entirely dependant, on them.

as for what can be done to actively incentivise people to start having more kids, the answer is not much. most efforts are a complete flop, and even in places like Sweden all they've managed to do is pause the decline in birthrate, not actually reverse it. global population will fall significantly in the next 50 years, which as @VoR says may not actually be the worst thing. but an ageing population is never a good thing as it puts so much pressure on an increasingly smaller pool of people to provide economically.

 

[Loufoque]

I was quite ambivalent about the reform (my British hardwiring means that I don't feel 64 is a particularly harsh age to retire at), but the passing of the law through the 49.3 did give me flashbacks to all of Johnson's tricks to override parliament before the EU Withdrawal Agreement was signed. Given the polarisation around this reform, I think it needed to pass through parliamentary means to be considered truly legitimate. Let's see what the week ahead holds.

 

[Penelope]

you only have to look to China or Korea for the answer to that.

30 years ago, a 30 year old would have parents of around ~55 who may soon need some support, and perhaps one grandparent of ~80 who they would have to consider providing for too. having two kids was perhaps economically viable, but disallowed.

in 2023, that same 30 year old has parents nearing retirement, likely two grandparents who need financial support (which will fall to their highly educated grandchildren to provide, seeing as their children were educated and entered work pre-economic super-boom period) and have plenty of years left to live, the average lifespan having grown by +10 years since 1990.

so that 30 yo is thinking: if I have two kids, or even one, in 5 years there'll be four generations of my family alive and I'll be the only earner. and of course people are not gonna want to have kids knowing that two generations above them and one below will be partially dependant, maybe entirely dependant, on them.

as for what can be done to actively incentivise people to start having more kids, the answer is not much. most efforts are a complete flop, and even in places like Sweden all they've managed to do is pause the decline in birthrate, not actually reverse it. global population will fall significantly in the next 50 years, which as @VoR says may not actually be the worst thing. but an ageing population is never a good thing as it puts so much pressure on an increasingly smaller pool of people to provide economically.

Yeah, but East Asia is fundamentally different culturally and economically - there's far more of an expectation that families take care of their own elderly relatives, and pensions aren't there what they are here. If nothing else, the whole point about pensions (and the increase in people choosing to retire early) is specifically about the fact that that expectation shouldn't apply so much here!

I'm not really hugely fatalist about the lack of success in efforts so far to encourage birth rates - it's not something many nations bar Hungary/Poland have really put genuinely substantial amounts of effort into policy-wise for decades. Given the answers around why people aren't having children tend to be so consistent around affordability for a solid chunk of people, I'd be surprised if a government that made it a specific target didn't see results (as, indeed, Sweden did for a solid while after they introduced their key policies)

 

[Dark Carnival]

We’re coming to get you with a CATAPULT Miss Macron!

 

[Saltwater]

Why do most people not start work before 24 in France?

Cause they're still at University I guess?

 

[Penelope]

Cause they're still at University I guess?

I'm not being funny but anyone still at university after 22 really needs to get a JOB.

 

[Penelope]

(If nothing else, they could usually really do with the second income.)

 

[ZenGiraffe]

I'm not being funny but anyone still at university after 22 really needs to get a JOB.

Masters Students AGOG

 

[Penelope]

Masters Students AGOG

NO EXCEPTIONS, NO SURRENDER

 

[Soldi]

I’m still at Uni and have two jobs

*twirls*

 

[Saltwater]

I’m still at Uni and have two jobs

*twirls*

Yes but the Uk gives loans to the students so they need an income to get them repaid from very early on, plus there's no military duty to fulfill prior to becoming eligible for employers to work. Am sure they'll be more differences between uk and elsewhere that I don't know of, it's never simple to compare between countries unless you've actually lived in them.

Oh also different unemployment rates could be a reason, I don't see who's going to hire someone with no qualifications yet and no experience for anything here, there are qualified and experienced people unemployed, i suppose elsewhere too.

 

[lolly]

I'm not sure that the fact that students have loans to repay is a significant factor in them starting work earlier in the UK. In fact we have far more young people in higher education now than we did than when we had all tuition paid for and a grant system.

 

[Dark Carnival]

I'm not being funny but anyone still at university after 22 really needs to get a JOB.

FUCK YOU

 

[Penelope]

Genuinely AGOG French students bunk off till 24 and then retire at 62! What a nation of utter wastrels! ()

 

[Peekaboo]

That's RICH coming from the country who invented THE GAP YEAR!

 

[GNL]

That's RICH coming from the country who invented THE GAP YEAR!

It's GAP YAH, thank you very much.

 

[Peekaboo]

I HONESTLY was APPALLED when I moved to the UK and learnt that was A THING (rich) people did.

 

[Dark Carnival]

Genuinely AGOG French students bunk off till 24 and then retire at 62! What a nation of utter wastrels! ()

*clutches baguette*

 

[COB]

OMG at this trio

 

[Jark]

maybe they all just had massive glow ups since last summer.

 

[ZenGiraffe]

OMG at this trio

Boteva

 

[COB]

New policy - you don't retire til you're 75, but each year you get a voucher for fillers and a bouncy blow dry

 

[Saltwater]

I was watching random footage from French demonstrations and I have to admire them for how strongly they oppose giving away even an inch of their rights.
I still don't think Emmanuel is the satan though, it's kind of noble to practically commit political suicide defending what he sees as the best solution for his country.
Am curious what the constitutional court will rule about the bill. And also when? Will the country be like this every day until the court's ruling?

 

[Dark Carnival]

I was watching random footage from French demonstrations and I have to admire them for how strongly they oppose giving away even an inch of their rights.
I still don't think Emmanuel is the satan though, it's kind of noble to practically commit political suicide defending what he sees as the best solution for his country.
Am curious what the constitutional court will rule about the bill. And also when? Will the country be like this every day until the court's ruling?

Saying Macron is not Satan is literal DC-nip because you know it'll get a reaction from me!
He is the absolute worst, full stop. The guy admitted in his winning speech in 2022 that he was elected not for his project but to block Le Pen. Yet he's stubbornly going ahead with the most contested reform in his campaign. That's more than 70% of the overall population, more than 90% of the working population and literally every union in France that's against it.
He doesn't give a shit whether it's political suicide or not, he cannot run for a third time anyway. At this point, it's just his huge ego making the decisions. He supposedly would rather see Paris burn than withdraw the reform.

 

[jivafox]

I would really recommend this book, which looks at (among other things) how the political class in France has treated the working class (and how it’s letting the far right get a foot, a leg, an ugly HEAD through the door), not to mention the skull dragging it gives Macron at the end

 

[Saltwater]

Saying Macron is not Satan is literal DC-nip because you know it'll get a reaction from me!
He is the absolute worst, full stop. The guy admitted in his winning speech in 2022 that he was elected not for his project but to block Le Pen. Yet he's stubbornly going ahead with the most contested reform in his campaign. That's more than 70% of the overall population, more than 90% of the working population and literally every union in France that's against it.
He doesn't give a shit whether it's political suicide or not, he cannot run for a third time anyway. At this point, it's just his huge ego making the decisions. He supposedly would rather see Paris burn than withdraw the reform.

My beautiful DC I didn't mean to provoke you, am against any reform that takes back working rights people have earned even on principles alone, but at the same time I don't know much about the situation given I don't live there. From afar his public image has always been a lot better than that of other european leaders. Interesting to know that he cannot run again. So he's got nothing to lose politically, other than accepting defeat.

 

[LTZ]

I know I'm risking the wrath of the Dark Carnival but watching Macron last night on TV explain what this reform was and what the alternatives were actually made total sense. Which is not saying that I agree with everything in this reform and the way it was handled.. but it did help me understand why some kind of reform had to happen. In fact, every single President in France for the last 30 years ( left or right) has tried to make this reform, and was never able to.