Eurovision 2022: Semi-Final 1 Predictions

The ten qualifiers will be…

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Not a semi final for the ages - Ukraine, Greece, Netherlands, Norway, Albania and (maybe) Portugal are the only ones I feel confident about.
 
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I’ve chosen Latvia as one of mine but I sincerely hope it DOESN’T qualify

Iceland doing well :disco:
 
At this stage I’d say Greece, Netherlands, Norway and Ukraine are the only ones that feel 100% safe. On the flip side, Bulgaria and Iceland are the only two that seem DOA.

Albania are probably IN but I do worry she could be the shock flop, and as much as I hate Switzerland you’d presume the juries would push it through. Then of the three spots left, Lithuania is quirky enough to stand out (not to mention the televote backing from Latvia and Norway), Austria really SHOULD make it, though I know her vocals are a potential worry, but hopefully nothing that can’t be sorted out with backing vocals.

Then the last spot I can see going anywhere, but Croatia seem the most competent of the lot.
 
God though - if semi 2 is the semi of boys with emotions, this one is very much GIRLS WITH GUITARS
 
Penelope said:
This is the GOOD semi!
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True and yet I am struggling to find ten songs I care about!

Maybe it’s because the Big 5 is where it’s at in 2022 (not you, Germany).

I will be beside myself if Portugal doesn’t qualify.
 
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I feel these ones are pretty safe:
Ukraine
Norway
Switzerland (sorry but this won’t just be relying on jury votes, it is sailing through)
Moldova

The rest I’m hesitant about because there are so many female singer-songwriter mid-tempos on the cusp that one or two have got to miss out. I’m not totally confident about The Netherlands at all for that reason.

When it comes to the pop uptempos, I am MUCH more confident that Albania will deliver on the night than Austria right now, but there is room for both if they get it right.

My vote for Lithuania is kind of wishful thinking at the moment admittedly.
 
The thing about this one is it's better/more varied, but less competitive. Semi 2 is very samey but also nightmarish in terms of how many entries are on a similar level competing for 10 slots (and also mathematically harder to get out of because there are 18 competing for 10, but also three Big Five voters, vs 17 for 10 here now Russia's pulled out and just two Big Five voters, meaning it's even more imbalanced).

There are about 14 entries I'd ordinarily expect to qualify in SF2, vs just about 8 or 9 here.
 
I really hope this year is a blip rather than an era.

I hope Albania or Israel win to remind Europe that Eurovision is not for straights with guitars. Måneskin was the exception not the rule.
 
Ag said:
I really hope this year is a blip rather than an era.

I hope Albania or Israel win to remind Europe that Eurovision is not for straights with guitars. Måneskin was the exception not the rule.
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To be fair there’s not MANY straights with guitars. It’s more just a sea of mid-tempos and 6/10s, which I doubt is anything to do with Måneskin.
 
Soldi said:
To be fair there’s not MANY straights with guitars. It’s more just a sea of mid-tempos and 6/10s, which I doubt is anything to do with Måneskin.
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I see the notes that nations took from Måneskin was 'REAL MUSIC' but totally misread that their appeal was SEXY RAW ENERGY.
 
I would say the combination of the Arcade and Måneskin successes have persuaded some artists who wouldn’t normally look twice at Eurovision to throw their hat into the ring.

Unfortunately for us, it seems that most of the artists on the periphery waiting for a reason for the contest to become an acceptable thing to do were the real music singer-songwriter types.
 
Pingu said:
I would say the combination of the Arcade and Måneskin successes have persuaded some artists who wouldn’t normally look twice at Eurovision to throw their hat into the ring.

Unfortunately for us, it seems that most of the artists on the periphery waiting for a reason for the contest to become an acceptable thing to do were the real music singer-songwriter types.
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That's a very good point I hadn't thought of. Maybe a Subwoolfer victory would tip the balance back in a more favourable direction.
 
I feel confident about Albania, Greece, Netherlands, Norway and Ukraine as qualifiers.

Then Slovenia and Bulgaria as the two clearest NQs.

Latvia and Moldova I think are likely through, I think they'll go down a lot better with the casual viewers than they have done with fans and this Moldovan act have form of managing to get shit through to the final.

Austria need to be through, I hope the performance is good enough because it's undoubtedly a much better song than the likes of Darude or Gromee.

I've gone with Portugal and Iceland as the final two just edging through, I came down to them, Croatia and Armenia being on the very borderline.

Switzerland is the song I'm rooting against more than any other in this semi. They really need to be told that this is absolutely not what we want.
 
The ever MYSTERIOUS Monika Liu is sure to qualify by summoning all the power of the BLACK LODGE.
 
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Confirmed running order:

1. Albania
2. Latvia
3. Lithuania
4. Switzerland
5. Slovenia
6. Ukraine
7. Bulgaria
8. Netherlands
9. Moldova
10. Portugal
11. Croatia
12. Denmark
13. Austria
14. Iceland
15. Greece
16. Norway
17. Armenia
 
  • What on EARTH are Armenia doing at #17, Norway (or Austria) are literally PERFECT show closers :D
  • Bit worried for Portugal being shoved on at the start of the second half, although considering that half is stacked with female mid-tempos I suppose being the first one out isn’t the worst thing in the world.
  • SO GLAD they picked Albania to open, WHAT A MOMENT it will be! :disco:
  • Bulgaria really have the worst position performing between Ukraine and Netherlands

Safe
Albania
Ukraine
Netherlands
Greece
Norway

Likely in
Moldova
Austria

Borderline in
Armenia
Portugal
Lithuania

Borderline out
Switzerland (they couldn’t have asked for a worse draw really, who the fucks going to remember that at the end?)
Latvia
Denmark
Croatia

Chanceless
Iceland (I think Maro is going to take away a lot of their voting base)
Bulgaria
Slovenia
 
I've also realised that Lithuania really doesn't have much luck going for it in terms of traditional voting allies in this semi - no UK and no Ireland (much to Poland's joy in the other). Being remembered from third is going to be quite an uphill battle, particularly with Switzerland straight after (one of a few really bizarre sequencing choices between this semi and the other).
 
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