Eurovision 2022: Semi-Final 1 Predictions

[Soldi]

The juries.

Malta have proved a few times that you can finish ~5th with the juries and still miss out though.

 

[ButterTart]

2. Latvia
3. Lithuania
4. Switzerland
5. Slovenia
6. Ukraine
7. Bulgaria
8. Netherlands
9. Moldova
10. Portugal
11. Croatia
12. Denmark

With the exception of Ukraine and Netherlands, this is a ROUGH run. There are going to be far too many songs getting through by necessity rather than merit in this semi.

 

[Soldi]

I've also realised that Lithuania really doesn't have much luck going for it in terms of traditional voting allies in this semi - no UK and no Ireland (much to Poland's joy in the other). Being remembered from third is going to be quite an uphill battle, particularly with Switzerland straight after (one of a few really bizarre sequencing choices between this semi and the other).

Norway should still be a guaranteed twelve though, and I can’t imagine they’d not be high up in the Latvian televote.

 

[Penelope]

Malta have proved a few times that you can finish ~5th with the juries and still miss out though.

If you think Boys Do Cry is only going to get 8 points from the public, I have a bridge to sell you.

 

[Penelope]

Norway should still be a guaranteed twelve though, and I can’t imagine they’d not be high up in the Latvian televote.

?

 

[VoR]

Safe
Ukraine
Greece
Armenia
Norway
Albania

Likely
Austria
Moldova
Netherlands

Borderline
Portugal
Switzerland

----

Lithuania
Croatia
Iceland

Unlikely
Latvia
Slovenia
Denmark
Bulgaria

 

[Soldi]

?

Norway always give Lithuania twelve in the televote, and whilst I don’t have STATS TO HAND you’d imagine Latvia and Lithuania are pretty reliable for vote swapping.

 

[Saltwater]

Subject to change depending on staging and vocal delivery.

Sure qualifiers:
Albania
Ukraine
Netherlands (winner vibes)
Portugal
Austria
Norway

Possible qualifiers:
Lithuania
Moldova
Croatia
Switzerland
Armenia

Possible non qualifiers:
Latvia
Denmark

Sure non qualifiers:
Slovenia
Iceland

Major Drama Shock qualifier:
Bulgaria

Major Drama Shock non qualifier:
Greece

 

[Saltwater]

Norway always give Lithuania twelve in the televote, and whilst I don’t have STATS TO HAND you’d imagine Latvia and Lithuania are pretty reliable for vote swapping.

Stats (mixed*)​

NORWAY to Lithuania​

4,2 points on average (their 7th most favourite points recipient)

LITHUANIA to Latvia​

10,4 points on average (their MOST favourite points recipient)

LATVIA to Lithuania​

7,6 points on average (their 3rd most favourite recipient)

​

 

[Soldi]

Stats​

NORWAY to Lithuania​

4,2 points on average (their 7th most favourite points recipient)

Norway televote
2021 - 12 to Lithuania in both the semi and final
2019 - 12 to Lithuania in the semi (they didn’t make the final)
2018 - 12 to Lithuania in the final (they we‘re in separate semis)
2017 - 10 to Lithuania in the semi (they didn’t make the final)
2016 - 12 to Lithuania in both the semi and final
2015 - 12 to Lithuania in the semi, 8 in the final
2014 - 12 to Lithuania in the semi (they didn’t make the final)

 

[Soldi]

Obviously there’s loads we haven’t seen but based on first rehearsals I‘d probably go for..

Ukraine
Norway
Netherlands
Greece
Armenia
Portugal
Albania
Austria
Moldova
Lithuania

To say it’s a shit semi it does feel rather competitive. I’d say Switzerland, Latvia and Slovenia all have a decent shot at making it too.

 

[VoR]

From my first prediction I’m going to optimistically ditch sad old Switzerland for Latvia.

Safe
Ukraine
Greece
Portugal
Norway

Likely
Albania
Armenia
Moldova
Netherlands

Borderline
Austria
Latvia

----

Lithuania
Croatia
Switzerland

Unlikely
Iceland
Slovenia
Denmark
Bulgaria